Silicon Metal Futures Price Center Rises, PV Upstream Sector Wait-and-See Sentiment Strong [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, Aug 5 –

Silicon Coal

Prices:

This week, silicon coal market prices were basically stable. Among them, Xinjiang caking silicon coal transaction prices were about 1,300-1,400 yuan/mt, Gansu silicon grain coal was 1,140 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal was 1,060 yuan/mt; Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon grain coal was 1,340 yuan/mt; Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was 855 yuan/mt.

Supply:

Supply maintained a diverging trend. Some coal washing plants still followed order-based production, producing based on sales, with no inventory pressure, while some plants under inventory pressure mainly focused on destocking.

Demand:

The silicon metal operating rate in August declined from July, and coupled with almost no room for growth in the near-term operating rate, the demand trend for silicon coal was somewhat weak.

Silicon Metal

Prices:

Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. In the futures market, driven by production cut news from the supply side and bullish PV anti-involution sentiment, the most-traded silicon metal contract trended strong. Silicon enterprises’ quotes were largely stable, with strong willingness to sell. Watch for the impact of variables on short-term price surges; resistance lies at silicon enterprises’ selling intentions.

Production:

In August, multiple production regions including Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan have expectations for silicon metal production cuts. Silicon metal production in August is expected to show a significant decrease MoM from July.

Inventory:

SMM statistics showed that as of July 30, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 523,000 mt, a WoW decrease of 13,000 mt (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.). In some regions, warehouse cargo pick-up continued, and physical inventory in warehouses decreased WoW. In-factory inventory showed an accumulated increase.

Prices

DMC: The most-traded price was 12,500-12,800 yuan/mt. The price center moved up WoW, with transactions mainly based on downstream rigid demand orders. Attention should be paid to the release of downstream orders in mid-to-late August.

D4: Yesterday’s quoted price was 12,700-13,000 yuan/mt, with an average of about 12,850 yuan/mt.

107 Silicone Rubber: Yesterday’s quoted price was 12,800-13,300 yuan/mt, with an average of about 13,050 yuan/mt.

Raw Rubber: Yesterday’s quoted price was 13,200-13,700 yuan/mt, with an average of about 13,450 yuan/mt.

Silicone Oil: Yesterday’s quoted price was 14,000-14,600 yuan/mt, with an average of about 14,300 yuan/mt.

Production:

In July, the operating rate of the silicone industry was above 60%, while the joint production cut target for August is around 50%. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the operating rate of monomer enterprises.

Inventory:

In July, stimulated by low market prices, mid-stream and downstream enterprises engaged in concentrated purchasing, which alleviated the inventory pressure for some monomer enterprises. The inventory pressure for silicone monomer enterprises was relatively low.

Polysilicon

Prices:

The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 31.6-33.5 yuan/kg. Currently, most manufacturers continue to hold back from selling, with very few market transactions, but expectations for price hikes are widespread. Some forward traders received higher quotes, with some prices even exceeding 40 yuan, but this was limited to forward traders. Spot trading is basically stagnant now, with the market watching the outcome of today's meeting.

Production

China's production continued to rise in July, mainly due to capacity ramp-ups in Sichuan, Yunnan, and other areas. The trend is also one of increase in August based on current observations.

Inventory:

Inventory in July showed a slight destocking trend overall, with some downstream order signing (mainly for granular polysilicon and some top-tier players), while forward traders and traders took away some inventory.

Wafer

Prices

Market prices for 18X wafers were 0.798-0.813 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers 0.897-0.913 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers 1.097-1.112 yuan/piece. Wafer prices stopped falling and stabilized, with everyone paying close attention to today's upstream meeting to see whether policies from the cost side can effectively resolve the current excessive competition problem.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey, August production is expected to cut by 1-2GW MoM. Although production has been cut for two consecutive months, overall production remains high relative to demand. Recently, as wafer prices fell below cash costs, top-tier players with excessive inventory pressure chose to cut production in response. In addition, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing saw adjustments.

Inventory

Inventory buildup at China's wafer enterprises showed a diverging trend, while inventories outside China began to destock gradually. Specifically, after experiencing a short-term downturn, India has clear restocking demand from September to October. In addition, the volume of re-export trade is also increasing, with multiple African countries joining the ranks of major exporters.

High-purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, the price of inner-layer sand in China is 40,000-46,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand 15,000-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucible prices are 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and 36-inch crucibles 6,500-6,800 yuan/piece. Crucible prices remained stable overall, while quartz sand prices showed slight divergence, with spot order prices for imported sand raising their quotes. Recently, crucible plants have increased their demand for high-grade quartz sand, driven by wafer plants' requirements for crucible unit production and crystal pulling duration.

Production

China's production schedule for high-purity quartz sand in August is expected to drop about 1% MoM, mainly due to two consecutive months of wafer production cuts, causing crucible plants to align supply with demand calculations and thus slowing down the procurement pace of quartz sand. Recently, consumption of consumables such as semiconductor sand and PV quartz plates has slightly risen.

Inventory

In August, imported sand inventory has continued to increase. In Q3 2026, wafer enterprises purchase crucibles reasonably according to planned production, and the overall quartz sand inventory level has continued to rise.