Aug 4, 2026 Tin Midday Review
Today, both China and overseas tin markets moved higher overall amid consolidation, with the price center continuing to probe upward. The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2609) opened at 424,700 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 430,920 yuan/mt, then consolidated at highs, and closed the morning session at 429,620 yuan/mt, up 0.81% from the previous trading day’s settlement price. Capital attention continued to increase during the session, and open interest rose by 3,716 lots from yesterday morning to 60,656 lots. On the LME, prices trended in tandem and were stronger, with three-month tin currently quoted at $55,790/mt, up 0.77%.
On the macro front:
(1) The US and Iran remained at odds over the status of negotiations. Trump insisted that US-Iran talks were advancing, divided into two phases—reopening the Strait of Hormuz and denuclearization—and stated that the strait would reopen by August 4 at the latest. Iranian officials, however, denied direct negotiations with the US, saying they were only advancing talks with Oman, and geopolitical uncertainty persisted.
(2) Fed official Williams expressed optimism about gradual easing of inflation pressures, while also stressing that the Fed would act promptly if inflation deviated from expectations. The US dollar index continued to soften toward the 100 mark, and together with overseas liquidity expectations, this provided external support for the nonferrous metals sector and the uptick in tin prices.
In the spot market, trading remained sluggish today. As futures prices climbed again and consolidated at highs, downstream enterprises were dominated by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and actual procurement was largely at a standstill. End-users and buyers generally stayed cautious amid fear of high prices, opted to wait on the sidelines for a pullback, and the market broadly lacked significant large-volume spot transactions.
Overall, the tin market is currently in a tug-of-war where macro and liquidity factors are lifting the price center while physical demand is capping the upside room. On one hand, low social inventory in China and the slow pace of supply recovery in Myanmar and Indonesia have underpinned market confidence in fundamentals. Coupled with the continued increase in open interest and the pullback in the US dollar index, liquidity is consistently fueling the upward push of the price center. On the other hand, as an industrial metal, the current thin spot trading is somewhat limiting the upside room. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to operate in a pattern of ‘probing higher but consolidating at highs,’ with possible intermittent retreats and fluctuations during the session. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the actual pace of supply recovery in the market.
![[SMM Tin Express: In July, the tin ingot trading volume on Indonesia's two major exchanges totaled 3,505 mt]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JnZMp20251217171752.jpg)
