Metals Nearly All Rise, SHFE Nickel, Lithium Carbonate, Polysilicon, Comex Silver Up Over 1%, European Container Freight Index Surges Over 3% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM August 4 news:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.91%, SHFE aluminum rose 1%. SHFE lead rose 0.23%. SHFE zinc fell 0.58%. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.55%.

In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.58%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.4%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 702.5 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, while hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel rose 2.06%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.91%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.85%.

Overseas base metals market, as of 11:41, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.77%, LME aluminum rose 0.56%, LME lead rose 0.80%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 0.77%. LME nickel rose 0.81%.

Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, COMEX silver rose 1.87%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.35%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.64%.

Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures edged up, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.54%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European freight futures contract rose 3.19% to 1,843 points.

As of 11:41, August 4, some futures midday market quotes:

Spot and fundamentals

Zinc: In Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot were mainly traded at 24,760-24,950 yuan/mt, Zijin was traded at 24,880-25,010 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot were mainly traded at around 24,760-24,870 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a premium of around 0-30 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,220 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of around 30-120 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 110 yuan/mt against Shanghai market.

Macro front

Domestic:

[State Administration for Market Regulation: 20 places including Beijing, Shanghai, etc., designated as national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites] The General Office of the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on promoting typical experiences and practices of national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites. Among them, Beijing Haidian District, Beijing Tongzhou District, Tianjin Binhai High-tech Zone, Shanghai Pudong New Area, Shanghai Fengxian District, Jiangsu Nanjing, Jiangsu Wuxi, Jiangsu Suzhou, Zhejiang Hangzhou, Zhejiang Ningbo, Zhejiang Wenzhou, Anhui Hefei, Fujian Xiamen Haicang District, Hubei Wuhan, Hunan Changsha, Guangdong Guangzhou, Guangdong Shenzhen, Guangdong Foshan, Chongqing Jiangjin District, Sichuan Chengdu Wuhou District were identified as the first batch of national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites. ()Market Regulation Administration

[PBOC Net Withdraws 559 Billion Yuan from Open Market Today] PBOC conducted 46.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous session. Today, 605.5 billion yuan reverse repos matured.

[Shenzhen New Home Sales Up Over 30% YoY in July] According to data from Shenzhen's real estate information platform, the city's new commercial housing sales totaled 3,773 units in July, down 35.2% MoM but up 19.3% YoY; among these, residential sales were 2,664 units, down 6.8% MoM but up 32.5% YoY. Looking at a longer period, new home sales from January to July totaled 35,104 units, a slight 0.7% YoY increase; of these, residential sales totaled 21,935 units, down 10.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing compared with H1. (JIN10 APP)

On the US dollar:

As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 100.01. The July US manufacturing PMI data showed strong demand, surging output, and accelerated hiring, marking the fastest expansion in over four years, which to some extent offset the interest rate cut expectations driven by declining oil prices, leaving overall market rate hike expectations relatively unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, the market priced in a 64.5% probability of at least a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. (Wall Street CN) (JIN10 APP)

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI registered 55.6 in July, the highest level since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, and the industry has remained above that threshold for seven consecutive months. The production index rose to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge indicated that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New orders — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing momentum has been strong this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, robust business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only sector reporting contraction was chemical products.

Fed’s Williams said he remains optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy maintains solid momentum, "I think some of the main factors that have pushed up inflation over the past year and a half will no longer play such a large role, and the disinflationary forces we observed earlier should reemerge."He added: "I am watching very closely what happens to core inflation measures over the coming months, whether that is consistent with inflation trending down to 2% and continuing to move lower, so that we achieve that sustained 2% inflation goal over the longer run by 2028." He also stated: "My own forecast is that inflation will come down somewhat in H2 this year and pull back further next year." Williams reiterated that the current monetary policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to the target. However, he noted: "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2%... then it would be entirely appropriate to take action to get us back on a path to 2% inflation." (Jin10 Data APP)

In terms of data:

Today, the US June trade balance, US June JOLTS job openings, US June factory orders MoM, and other figures will be released. Items to watch: SpaceX announces Q2 2026 results; FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit takes place from August 4-6, with Samsung, SK, and other storage giants in attendance.

In terms of crude oil:

As of 11:41, both crude benchmarks were up, with WTI rising 0.73% and Brent gaining 1.16%. With the outlook for US-Iran negotiations uncertain and market concerns over supply disruptions persisting, oil prices rebounded after the previous session's plunge.

Shipping tracking data shows that six empty Saudi-flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days, heading toward southern Africa. One of them is destined for Gibraltar. On August 3, the six tankers were sailing in formation in the high seas off the coast of Somalia. (Jin10 Data APP)

Spot market at a glance:

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