[SMM Nickel Midday Review] August 4, impacted by Indonesia's RKAB quota news, nickel prices surged sharply.

Published: Aug 4, 2026 11:44

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SMM Nickel News, August 4:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US and Iran give conflicting accounts of negotiations: Trump insists talks with Iran are underway, divided into two phases—separate discussions on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and denuclearization—and claims the strait will reopen by August 4 at the latest; Iran denies talks with the US, stating it is only advancing related negotiations with Oman.

(2) US Fed's Williams: Optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease. The Fed will act to achieve price stability if inflation does not return to the 2% path as expected.

Spot Market:

On August 4, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 133,400 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -300 to 400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in early trading, closing the morning session at 132,650 yuan/mt, up 1.55%.

Nickel prices rallied sharply today, driven by market rumors of quota tightening as the period enters a critical phase for approving Indonesia's supplementary RKAB nickel ore quotas. Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia, stated on August 3 that the government will implement a "measured relaxation" of the RKAB, with additional quotas expected to be released gradually while maintaining the market supply-demand balance. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt range in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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