[SMM Coal Flash News] Indonesia May Prioritize High-Royalty Coal Miners in RKAB Relaxation

ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steelmaker, reported second-quarter core EBITDA of US$2.06 billion, beating the market consensus of US$2.01 billion by approximately US$50 million (+2.5%). The company expects European steel shipments to remain stable or edge higher in the third quarter, defying the usual seasonal slowdown. Supported by tighter EU import measures and rising steel prices, ArcelorMittal has restarted three blast furnaces and said it has further production flexibility if demand continues to improve. European crude steel production also increased by around 11% from the first quarter. Firmer steel prices and blast furnace restarts indicate continued improvement in European steelmaking activity, providing near-term support for seaborne metallurgical coal and coke demand. While the current recovery is not yet sufficient to shift the global supply-demand balance, further production restarts across Europe could strengthen support for international metallurgical coal prices.

Japan's largest power producer, JERA, announced that it has secured sufficient LNG inventories to meet peak summer electricity demand through October, ensuring stable power supply even if prolonged heatwaves drive higher electricity consumption. As one of the world's largest LNG buyers, JERA's announcement indicates that Japan has already secured its summer fuel requirements and is unlikely to require additional fuel procurement due to LNG shortages. For the coal market, LNG and thermal coal compete as fuels for power generation. The market had expected extreme summer temperatures to potentially boost additional fuel purchases and provide support for thermal coal demand. However, confirmation of ample LNG inventories reduces the likelihood of increased coal-fired generation caused by gas supply constraints, leaving the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market with limited additional demand support in the near term. Overall, the news is viewed as neutral to slightly bearish for international thermal coal prices. As the announcement is confined to power generation fuel supply and does not affect steel production, blast furnace operations, or coke manufacturing, it has little direct impact on the seaborne metallurgical coal and coke markets.

Workers at BHP's Port Hedland export terminal in Western Australia plan to strike on August 8–9 if wage negotiations fail, potentially disrupting around 800,000 tonnes of daily iron ore exports and delaying approximately 16 shipments. The industrial action affects port logistics rather than iron ore or metallurgical coal mine production, leaving the seaborne metallurgical coal market largely unaffected in the near term. However, if the disruption becomes prolonged and materially constrains iron ore supply, blast furnace output could be reduced, lowering coke consumption and, in turn, weakening demand for metallurgical coal. While the immediate impact is supportive for iron ore prices, the coal market will focus on whether the disruption evolves into a broader constraint on steel production.