Recently, the biomass gasification technology seminar and "Donghua Furnace" on-site observation meeting was held in Jarud Banner, Tongliao City, Inner Mongolia. Jiang Hai, Vice President of the New Energy Research Institute of China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, stated at the meeting that as carbon pricing mechanisms gradually improve, related technology maturity rises, and the raw material collection and supply system accelerates its establishment, the green methanol industry is expected to enter a large-scale development stage from 2028 to 2030.
Jiang Hai pointed out that green methanol is both an important fuel for decarbonization in the shipping sector and a key carrier connecting renewable energy with deep industrial emission reduction. The global green methanol market is accelerating its expansion, with market size expected to grow from about $2 billion in 2025 to about $40 billion by 2035. As the International Maritime Organization's shipping carbon tax is progressively implemented and the replacement of chemical raw materials accelerates, market demand will continue to expand.
China's green methanol industry already has a solid foundation for large-scale development. Data show that in 2025, China's existing capacity reached 380,000 mt, accounting for about 42% of the global total, ranking among the top globally.
However, the industry is still in the transition from early commercialization to large-scale development. Although market demand has emerged, project economics have not yet been fully realized. At this stage, the industry is characterized by "high planning, low implementation." Production costs remain high, products are notably homogeneous, a stable profit model has not yet formed, project validation is challenging, and capital payback periods are relatively long.
Meanwhile, the industry faces issues such as insufficient validation of large-scale core equipment and the need for process stability testing. Technology adaptation risks in engineering construction may cause project delays or cost overruns. Imperfect industry standards, certification systems, and carbon trading mechanisms also make it difficult to fully convert the green premium into actual corporate earnings, and insufficient market-side driving force further dampens investment confidence.
In response to these issues, Jiang Hai proposed building a trinity guarantee system of "policy guidance, standard regulation, and market drive," and promoting industry breakthroughs from four dimensions: raw material supply, industry chain coordination, business models, and end-use applications.
On the raw material side, a collaboration mechanism led by the government, driven by enterprises, and involving farmer participation should be established. The collection, transportation, and supply network for agricultural and forestry waste should be improved, standardization of raw material grading and localized large-scale supply should be promoted, and the impact of raw material dispersion and cost fluctuations on industry development should be reduced.
On the industry chain side, integrated technology innovation should be strengthened, promoting full-process coupling and optimization of "gasification, purification, and synthesis." Focus on cultivating solution providers with capabilities in system design, equipment integration, and EPC contracting. Use modular design to reduce engineering risks and enhance technology adaptability and production stability.
In terms of business models, a composite profit path combining "product revenue, carbon trading premium, and green consumption" can be explored. Fully leverage the environmental value and energy attributes of projects, improve project economics through multiple revenue streams, and enhance the industry's ability to attract capital and withstand market fluctuations.
On the application side, accelerate the construction of a consumption system covering diverse scenarios, and promote the adoption of green methanol in areas such as marine clean fuel, heavy-duty truck power substitution, and MTO chemical raw materials. At the same time, build an integrated regional network of "production sites, logistics distribution, and fueling stations" to form stable market absorption channels and provide support for large-scale industry development.
