Wafer transaction pace slowed down, solar cell prices moved sideways [SMM Silicon PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM August 4 News:

Wafer

Prices: Market 18X wafer prices ranged from 0.798 to 0.828 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices from 0.894 to 0.912 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices from 1.097 to 1.112 yuan/piece. The transaction center for various wafer sizes shifted slightly downward, with the overall transaction pace slowing down. Enterprises were relatively more concerned about the actual impact from upstream policies.

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, production cuts of 1-2 GW MoM occurred in August. Although production had been cut for two consecutive months, overall output remained relatively high compared to demand. Recently, as wafer prices fell below cash costs, top-tier players with excessively high inventory pressure chose to cut production in response. In addition, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing were adjusted.

Inventory: Inventory buildup among wafer enterprises showed a divergent trend. Top-tier players' inventories had already exceeded reasonable ranges. Demand for bonded zone inventory orders to India weakened marginally, while several African countries emerged among the top export destinations.

Solar Cell

Prices:

Today, overall solar cell market prices remained stable, with 183-type transaction ranges at 0.27-0.275 yuan/W; 210R transaction ranges at 0.255-0.26 yuan/W, with mainstream deals at 0.26 yuan/W; and 210N mainstream transactions at 0.26 yuan/W. On Monday, market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, with most producers maintaining last Friday's quotes, and only a few enterprises lowering the bottom end of their quotes. Short-term industry rumors had not yet significantly affected spot transactions, as the market awaited more guidance. Currently, producers still faced destocking pressure, with low-priced supply not yet cleared. Downstream module procurement remained rational, with no significant growth in orders yet. Before directional news landed, the futures market was likely to consolidate in a range, lacking drivers for wild swings.

Production:

In August, the industry's expected production schedule was slightly revised down from July. Some producers anticipated weaker demand in August and proactively reduced output. The actual implementation of operating rates going forward still requires continuous tracking.

Inventory:

This week, industry inventory pulled back noticeably WoW, thanks to producers' intensive selling at end-July and accelerated destocking pace. However, the overall industry inventory base remained high, continuing to constrain the extent of price recovery.

PV Film

Prices

PV-grade EVA:

Currently, the mainstream spot transaction range for domestic PV-grade EVA resin was 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt, with resin prices remaining stable for now. On the cost side, ethylene prices weakened slightly, while some petrochemical units shifted to producing PV-grade material, easing market supply pressure and providing insufficient support for price increases. Top-tier petrochemical plants' weekly settlement prices held at last week's levels. Traders' spot supply was scarce, with some suspending external quotes. PV-grade EVA prices are expected to remain stable in the short term.

PV Film:

Currently, the price of 420g transparent EVA film is 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², while the 380g EPE film is priced at 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². This month’s monthly long-term agreement prices for films have been largely finalized; earlier increases in EVA resin costs raised production expenses, pushing film prices further up. Long-term contract prices for top module manufacturers remained largely unchanged this month, while scattered orders were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Future price trends will depend on continued monitoring of PV-grade EVA resin market conditions and the actual implementation of module production schedules.

Production: PV-grade EVA production edged up this week as some units switched to PV-grade material. Film manufacturers’ August production schedules are expected to increase by approximately 6–7% MoM from July.

Inventory: Inventory at petrochemical plants currently remains at low levels, with output prioritized for long-term contracts and limited spot cargo in circulation. Overall inventory pressure at film factories is manageable.