Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,878.5/mt, briefly touching a high of $1,885.5/mt in Asian trading before drifting lower. As the US dollar index rebounded, LME lead came under pressure and hit a low of $1,858.5/mt during European trading, eventually settling at $1,867/mt, down 0.72%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at a high of 15,385 yuan/mt, then drifted lower as bears added positions. It touched an intraday low of 15,205 yuan/mt before moving sideways, ultimately settling at 15,255 yuan/mt, down 1.13%.
On the macro front:
The US Treasury raised its Q3 borrowing estimate to $739 billion. Twenty-five US states filed a lawsuit against the latest tariff measures by the US government. The Bank of Korea planned to purchase domestic refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years. Fed's Williams: was optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease. If inflation does not return to the 2% path as expected, the Fed will act to achieve price stability. China's Ministry of Commerce: Foreign enterprises have filed a Section 337 investigation application concerning certain secondary cylindrical batteries, battery components, and products containing the same. The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong jointly announced new measures to deepen practical cooperation and close coordinated development between the two markets.
Spot fundamentals:
SHFE lead extended its decline, initially falling to a more than three-year low. Suppliers diverged significantly on shipments, with some planning to deliver to warehouses and others selling at prevailing prices. Quotations in mainstream producing areas were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices, with few offering material; some secondary refined lead was quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and a few at a premium of 200 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, though some showed intentions to buy the dip; trading activity in the spot market improved slightly.
Inventory: On August 3, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,825 mt to 438,450 mt. As of August 3, total social inventory of SMM lead ingot in five regions was 72,100 mt, up 3,700 mt from July 27 and up 3,600 mt from July 30.
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, lead prices have fallen successively, hitting a new low for nearly three years. Downstream lead-acid battery enterprises have maintained a strong risk-off sentiment and stayed cautious in procurement. Against a backdrop of sluggish consumption, in-factory inventory at lead smelters has been rising steadily since late July. Primary lead suppliers gradually shifted lead ingots to delivery warehouses, pushing social inventory higher. Before delivery, suppliers are expected to continue such transfers, and social inventory of lead ingots will extend its upward trend. Due to expectations of additional maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters, the slowdown in lead ingot supply will curb the increase in inventory. Overall, bearish factors for lead prices remain strong, and the support from supply-side slowdown on lead prices should be monitored.
![US Dollar Index Rebounded, LME Lead, under Pressure, Closed Lower [SMM Lead Morning Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/lIHfM20251217171721.jpeg)
![Secondary Lead: Falling lead prices dampened enterprises' selling enthusiasm, and a supply-demand stalemate made transactions difficult [SMM Lead Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mfCMp20251217171721.jpeg)