SMM August 4 News:
In the metals market:
Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper gained 0.43%. SHFE aluminum added 0.61%. SHFE lead fell 1.17%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.82%, and SHFE tin rose 0.44%. SHFE nickel climbed 1.13%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.08%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract edged up 0.24%.
Overnight, ferrous metals mostly declined. Stainless steel surged 3.09%, iron ore fell 0.71%, and rebar slipped 0.4%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.56%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.46%.
Overnight on the overseas metals market, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper gained 0.33%. LME aluminum rose 1%. LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc dipped 0.16%. LME tin inched up 0.03%. LME nickel slipped 0.26%.
Overnight in the precious metals segment: COMEX gold rose 0.09%, while COMEX silver gained 1.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.11%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract added 0.34%.
As of 7:17 a.m. on August 4, overnight closing prices:
Macro Front
Domestic side:
[Li Qiang Signs State Council Decree to Promulgate Revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree to promulgate the revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits, effective October 15, 2026. The Regulations aim to protect exclusive rights to integrated circuit layout-designs, encourage technological innovation in integrated circuits, and promote scientific and technological development. The Regulations consist of six chapters and 54 articles, with the main revisions as follows. First, clarify the overall requirements. The protection of integrated circuit layout-designs shall implement the strategic deployment of the Party and the state on intellectual property rights, expand the scope of protection, and emphasize good faith. Second, improve the application and examination procedures. Regulate fraudulent applications, refine material requirements, improve rejection and revocation procedures, and add procedures for restoration of rights. Third, strengthen protection of exclusive rights. Clarify standards for defining the scope of rights and increase compensation for infringement. Fourth, promote the utilization of layout-designs. Strengthen public services, specify reward and remuneration measures, improve requirements for transfer, licensing, and pledge, and regulate the exercise of co-owners' rights. (Xinhua News Agency)
[NDRC and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction. It proposes that by 2030, the new-type power system will be initially established: a green and low-carbon power supply pattern will have basically taken shape, with non-fossil energy accounting for 50% of power generation; power supply capability will be continuously enhanced, complementarity and mutual support among power systems will be greatly improved, and security and resilience will be significantly strengthened, keeping power supply adequacy at a reasonable level to effectively meet the electricity needs of socioeconomic development and people's aspirations for a better life; a safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, strong, resilient, intelligent, and flexible new-type power grid will be initially built, giving full play to its role as a resource allocation platform and service functions, achieving high-level consumption of over 2.8 billion kW of new energy, and establishing a charging infrastructure network capable of supporting more than 110 million EVs. The institutional mechanisms for the new-type power system will be further improved, and a unified national power market system will be basically established. The plan proposes promoting wide-load high-efficiency retrofits for existing coal-fired power units, controlling the increase in coal consumption under low-load operating conditions to within 25%. It also calls for promoting full-load denitrification retrofits for coal-fired units based on local conditions. Implement a batch of cross-generation upgrade projects for 600,000-kW-level units. In areas with suitable conditions, build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects. Formulate policies for the integrated development of coal power and new energy, support the priority implementation of a batch of coal power-new energy integration projects in areas where conditions permit, carry out retrofits to enhance coal power's regulating capability, and promote the coupling and integration of coal power and new energy systems to achieve integrated regulation and delivery and reduce coal-fired power generation.
[SHFE Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to copper, gold, rebar, and natural rubber futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by the exchange. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots.
[Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to crude oil futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by INE. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. (Shanghai International Energy Exchange)
[CISA: In the Next Stage, Strictly Implement the Steel Export License Management System] In H1 2026, steel exports saw an overall decline in volume and stable prices, while steel billet exports surged significantly. Overseas, 12 original anti-dumping investigations were initiated against Chinese steel, and trade friction pressure remained unabated. In H2, external constraints tightened: the EU's new steel safeguard measures reduced quotas and introduced the "melted and poured" origin rule, and coupled with global geopolitical disruptions, the export environment became more complex. In the next stage, strictly implement the steel export license management system, adhere to the orientation of "promoting high-end products, stabilizing peripheral markets, and strict supervision," strengthen industry self-discipline, optimize the export structure, deepen cultivation of peripheral and emerging markets, actively respond to trade frictions, proactively adapt to international rules, and drive the transformation of exports toward high-end and green development to achieve steady and orderly progress. (CISA)
US Dollar:
Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.97. In July, the US manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than four years, driven by sustained strong demand, surging production, and increased hiring. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 in July, the highest since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the sector has now been above that level for seven consecutive months. The Production Index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge signaled that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New order growth — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing has been robust this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, firm business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only industry reporting contraction was chemical products.
According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 67.2%. For the October meeting, the probability of holding rates steady is 23.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 57.3% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 19.3%.
Fed's Williams said he remains optimistic that inflation pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy remains on a solid footing, "I think some of the main factors that had been pushing up inflation over the last year and a half or so will fade, and some of the disinflationary forces that we had observed earlier should reassert themselves." He added, "I'm watching very carefully the next few months' readings on core inflation to see if they are consistent with inflation moving toward 2% and continuing to trend lower, to give us confidence that we can achieve our 2% inflation goal durably by 2028." He also said, "My own forecast is that inflation will come down in the second half of this year and come down further next year." Williams reiterated that the current policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to target. But he noted, "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2% ... then taking action to get us back to that 2% path would be entirely appropriate." (Jin10 Data APP)
Other Currencies:
Data from the Bank of Japan's accounts suggest that Japan likely spent about $34 billion on Friday to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, building on the coordinated action with the US on Thursday. Based on a comparison of BOJ account data released Monday with money broker forecasts, the estimated intervention was about 5.33 trillion yen (approximately $34 billion). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier Monday that Japan had stepped into the market on Friday. The continued yen-buying by Japanese authorities underscores their determination to counter bearish bets against the yen. The US Treasury joined the effort last week to shore up the yen, marking the closest coordination on exchange rate policy in 15 years. Analysis of the BOJ accounts does not reflect the scale of US intervention in the market, but US involvement may have reduced the amount of funds Japan needed to achieve the same exchange rate effect. (Jin10 Data APP)
Macro:
Today, data such as the US Trade Balance for June, US JOLTS Job Openings for June, and US Factory Orders MoM for June will be released. Attention should be paid to: SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings release; the FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit to be held August 4-6, with storage giants such as Samsung and SK hynix in attendance.
Crude Oil:
Overnight, both crude oil futures plunged, with WTI tumbling 5.44% and Brent falling 4.81%.
Last Sunday, Trump said publicly that the US and Iran would start talks on Monday, adding that "after the Hormuz agreement comes the nuclear deal." Iran earlier Monday denied the claim of talks with the US. During afternoon US stock trading, Trump again said negotiations with Iran were still ongoing. He said the US is currently in dialogue with Iran at its request, a process supported by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries, and stressed that this will be Iran's "last chance to sign a good deal." Signals are currently mixed, and the market has turned to a wait-and-see mode. Substantive risks in the Strait of Hormuz have yet to dissipate. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion near a tanker off the coast of Oman on Sunday. This waterway, which in peacetime carries about one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG shipments, already saw an LNG carrier attacked late last week. On the futures curve, Brent is in a pronounced backwardation structure, reflecting still-tight physical market supply. (Wall Street Insights)
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