Fundamental Support and Geopolitical Easing Signals Intertwine, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Consolidate at Highs [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary for Aug 1, 2026

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2609) opened at 424,980 yuan/mt today, reaching an intraday high of 428,770 yuan/mt in early trading before pulling back to consolidate. By midday, it closed at 425,600 yuan/mt, up 0.36% from the previous trading day's settlement price, with open interest at 57,603 lots. On the LME, the three-month tin contract was last trading at $55,200/mt, slightly down by 0.27%.

On the Macro Front:

(1) Trump stated that negotiations concerning the Strait of Hormuz and denuclearization are set to begin on Monday afternoon; Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei, meanwhile, indicated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not revert to the pre-conflict status, with a new shipping lane, agreed upon with Oman, to be determined by mutual consultation. Signs of a bilateral pivot toward diplomatic engagement introduced a phased, moderately positive easing tone for the markets.

(2) The People's Bank of China convened its H2 2026 work conference on Aug 1. The meeting underscored the need to "continue the appropriately accommodative monetary policy," further solidifying expectations of loose liquidity in China's financial markets and the broader commodity sector.

Spot Market, transactions in the spot market were relatively mediocre this morning. With futures prices consolidating above the high range of 425,000 yuan/mt, downstream and end-user buyers maintained a pronounced wait-and-see sentiment. Purchases were limited to sporadic hand-to-mouth buying, with no significant willingness to enter the market on a large scale. Suppliers quoted prices in line with market conditions, resulting in limited overall trading volume.

In summary, the current tin market features a dynamic of "solid fundamental support being tugged by macro expectations." On the fundamental side, China's social inventory remains at relatively low levels. While Myanmar is gradually resuming production, the overall recovery volume is still limited. At the same time, though Indonesia has commenced exports, the pace of volume release has not yet fully picked up, maintaining supply-side support. From a macro and sentiment perspective, signals from Middle East peace talks have eased sentiment. Furthermore, with no US Fed meeting scheduled for August, room remains for the market to trade on macro easing and liquidity expectations. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue its tug-of-war, with fundamental support underneath and high-price trading pressure overhead. It will likely maintain a pattern of probing higher before pulling back within the current high range, consolidating. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to the actual progress of Myanmar's production resumption and the pace of Indonesian tin ingot exports.