SHFE Aluminum Futures See Slight Correction, Weak Demand Suppresses Market Transactions

[Central Bank Sends Easing Signals; Supply-Demand and Geopolitical Games Limit Aluminum Price Upside Room] Our comprehensive assessment shows that the macro front has improved recently, with the marginal constraints of interest rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continuing to ease. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China has kept rising. China’s central bank will implement accommodative monetary policies, step up counter-cyclical adjustments, and redouble efforts to expand domestic demand to steer the economy toward sustained, more favorable, and broader-based development. The persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East has jointly underpinned aluminum prices, significantly boosting short-term market confidence. However, the ongoing commissioning of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, the recent softness in traditional end-use demand in China, combined with the repeated shifts in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and the uncertainties triggered by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, continue to exert certain pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Express] The daily inventory of secondary aluminum ingot in major consumption regions in China was 7,619 mt today, a decline of 198 mt from the previous trading day. Among them, destocking in Foshan region was 217 mt, while inventory buildup in Ningbo region reached 18 mt.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tight Supply of Aluminum Scrap Supports ADC12 Prices, Off-Season Caps Gains] Last Friday night, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened at 23,115 yuan/mt, and during the night session, it reached a high of 23,320 yuan/mt and a low of 23,115 yuan/mt, closing at 23,270 yuan/mt.