Strong Reality Meets Weak Demand, 410,000–430,000 Range Wide-Range Tug-of-War [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, August 3, 2026

Market Review: Last week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract exhibited a high-level consolidation pattern of first declining and then rising, mainly influenced by the intertwined effects of a sharp correction in overseas chip stocks, the US Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady, repeated turmoil in the Middle East, and news-driven disruptions in domestic ore supply. Overall, the futures center gradually shifted upward in a tug-of-war from the previous 410,000 yuan/mt level, with the upper end of the fluctuation range touching 430,000 yuan/mt, broadly fluctuating within the 410,000–430,000 yuan/mt range. In the tin ingot spot market, trading remained sluggish last week. Downstream users were in the traditional off-season, and with the fear of high prices from persistently elevated absolute prices, their willingness to actively restock was insufficient. Only when prices pulled back narrowly during the session did sporadic just-in-time point-price transactions and order placements emerge. Overall, purchases were kept to small volumes on an as-needed basis, with the market lacking large-scale buying support.

Market Forecast:

On the international macro front, at its policy meeting, the US Fed held interest rates steady, but for the first time since 2016, three dissenting votes called for a rate hike, sending a strong signal of hawkish division. Although market expectations for rate hikes this year retreated after the meeting and the weakening US dollar index provided short-term support for the nonferrous metals sector, the steepening medium-term rate hike path pressured tin’s zero-interest-bearing nature. Meanwhile, the Middle East geopolitical situation escalated again, with the US-Iran conflict breaking a ceasefire and boosting oil prices, which re-tightened the energy inflation and interest rate chains, increasing macro uncertainty. In addition, the sharp decline in US tech stocks caused short-term disturbances to sentiment for tin’s AI solder demand. China’s tin market overall showed a strong reality of tight ore, limited ingot supply, and low inventories, but high prices significantly restrained downstream demand.

Supply side, in Wa State, Myanmar, affected by the rainy season, water accumulation in mines, and logistics disruptions, production resumptions reached only 40–50% of pre-ban levels, with ore imports shrinking sharply YoY. Full production resumption is expected to be delayed until 2027, keeping domestic tin ore resources persistently tight. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season coupled with high upstream prices led to strong fear of high prices and wait-and-see sentiment among downstream solder and electronics processing enterprises. Spot transactions turned sluggish, with only just-in-time procurement being maintained. However, the high prosperity of AI computing power and the semiconductor industry chain continued, providing medium and long-term resilience support for tin solder demand. Domestic and overseas exchange inventories were both at historically low levels and continued to destock, building a solid bottom defense for tin prices.

Overall, the strong fundamentals are intertwined with macro and seasonal weak demand, but the floor-supporting logic of low inventories and ore tightness remains unchanged. Tin prices are expected to continue consolidating at highs on a strong note this week. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is likely to fluctuate around 420,000 yuan/mt, capped on the upside by macro risks and high price suppression, while supported on the downside by solid cost support. It is recommended that investors maintain a bullish bias and closely monitor domestic policy developments and the potential boost to demand from the start of consumer electronics stockpiling in late August.