July 31, 2026 News:
As of today, the most-traded alumina futures contract closed at 2,621 yuan/mt, continuing its recent weak trend. The previous day (July 30), prices briefly dipped to 2,617 yuan/mt intraday, with a single-day decline of 1.37%, hitting a new phase low. Under the weight of multiple bearish factors—sustained supply releases, intensifying import pressure, and fading speculative sentiment—the alumina market is undergoing a fundamentally driven valuation correction. However, unlike the deep decline at the end of 2025, the significantly higher ore-side costs are now building a floor that is hard to break through easily.
Supply side, China’s operating alumina capacity remains high, and incremental pressure continues to mount. Enterprises in Guangxi that were previously under maintenance are steadily resuming production, with some production lines already restarted, gradually restoring regional supply capability. Meanwhile, south China still has nearly 3 million mt of new capacity planned for release in the coming months, further reinforcing market expectations of a loose supply pattern.
The waning heat on the bauxite front further erodes futures sentiment support. Supply disruptions in Guinea that had previously sparked market concerns are gradually fading from view as time passes. After the news heat dissipated, speculative bull funds exited one after another, stripping the futures of sentiment premium as prices returned to supply-demand fundamentals.
The impact of overseas resources continues to weigh on the Chinese market. This year, alumina imports have climbed sharply, with port inventories accumulating to a high of 940,000 mt. The continuous inflow of overseas alumina has not only effectively supplemented domestic supply but also exerted persistent downward pressure on spot quotations. The weakening spot price and futures are in a negative feedback loop, reinforcing the downward price spiral.
However, despite bears advancing their logic step by step, current prices are not without resistance. Compared to the December 2025 sell-off to 2,437 yuan/mt, the expected bottom in this round of decline is significantly different. At that time, Guinea bauxite was quoted just over $60/mt, whereas ore prices have now jumped to the $70-75/mt range. The industry average full cost has consequently climbed to around 2,530 yuan/mt. This substantial upward shift in the cost center means that even if fundamentals turn fully bearish, a free-fall price collapse is unlikely to recur, and the cost support effect will strengthen marginally as prices decline.
The opening of the export window is one of the few potential rebound variables in the current market. If overseas alumina prices continue rising while domestic prices remain low, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets widens enough to cover export costs, the export channel may periodically clear, offering a marginal absorption path for domestic surplus capacity. But rationally speaking, even if the export window opens, the total volume it can divert will still be insufficient to cover the incremental pressure from new capacity in south China. The improvement in exports is more of a short-term rebound catalyst at the sentiment repair level, rather than a sufficient condition for a trend reversal.
Overall, in the short term, alumina prices will fluctuate narrowly between the surplus logic and cost support. The core price fluctuation range is expected to stay at 2,600-2,650 yuan/mt. Given that fundamentals will remain loose in August, futures prices may fall below the 2,600 yuan/mt mark, but due to the rigid constraint of ore-side costs, the downside room is relatively limited.
(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)
Data source: SMM
![July Ex-China Alumina Supply Rebounds Significantly, Middle East Restart and Indonesian Policy Changes Draw Attention [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/YPMhF20251217171654.jpg)
