Market wait-and-see sentiment remains strong, spot price continues to grind lower [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the north China market was at 5,650-5,700 yuan/mt, flat WoW; SiMn 6517 (cash) in the south China market was at 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, flat WoW from last Friday, while SiMn 6014 (cash) in the south China market was at 5,350-5,400 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Recently, SiMn futures moved sideways on a subdued note, market sentiment was marked by strong wait-and-see attitude, spot prices declined, and futures and spot prices largely moved in tandem.

Cost side, on the ore front, spot manganese ore prices continued to grind lower; on the electricity prices front, after being raised, electricity prices in Guangxi and Guizhou stayed high with no expectation of decline, Yunnan entered the rainy season and saw some electricity price reductions, while parts of Inner Mongolia experienced power rationing during the low-wind season, leading to modest electricity price increases. Under the interplay of multiple factors, overall SiMn production costs declined somewhat.

Supply side, operating rates in Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable, but most producers reported heavy losses, with production cuts and load reductions; capacity release and blast furnace maintenance occurred simultaneously. Producers in Ningxia deepened production cuts; alloy plants in south China continued to operate at low rates, with few shipment opportunities and a sluggish trading atmosphere. Overall industry supply declined, while enterprise finished product inventories stayed high; high destocking pressure weighed on SiMn futures and spot prices in the short term.

Demand side, end-use consumption for alloys was sluggish, overall downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and steel mills and traders remained cautious in restocking, making it difficult to effectively support the SiMn market in the short term. Steel mill tenders gradually entered the market, with HBIS’s SiMn procurement volume for July 2026 at 15,400 mt, unchanged MoM from June. The initial inquiry price was 5,900 yuan/mt, and the settlement price was set at 5,950 yuan/mt, providing limited support to the market, while shipment sentiment remained subdued.

In summary, current demand struggles to effectively boost prices, producers broadly face losses, and under loose supply-demand conditions, SiMn is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. Future attention should be paid to changes in SiMn supply and demand and fluctuations in futures.