July copper cathode production was recorded at 1.1268 million mt, down 1.59% MoM. Cumulative production for January-July reached 8.148 million mt, up 4.9% YoY, with cumulative growth of 381,000 mt. July copper cathode production was 39,200 mt below the estimated 1.166 million mt, primarily due to difficulties in sourcing anode plates from scrap and concentrated smelter maintenance.
Raw material side, a slight decline in sulphuric acid prices failed to halt the downward pace of TC. As of July 31, the SMM weekly copper concentrates index had reached -$159.37/dmt, down $30.31/dmt from -$124.5/dmt on June 26. Although copper prices have remained high recently, copper scrap shipments have not been consistently active. Currently affected by policies, sourcing anode plates from scrap is difficult, and some smelters have seen production decline as a result. Moreover, July was still within the concentrated maintenance period, with the impact from smelter maintenance becoming pronounced, leading to the production dip.
August copper cathode production is expected to be 1.139 million mt, up 1.1% MoM, with cumulative production for January-August estimated at 9.287 million mt. August production is expected to remain low for several reasons: first, concentrated maintenance continues in August, and some enterprises have added new maintenance plans, amplifying the impact from maintenance; second, there has been no sign of easing in copper scrap shipment sentiment, and sourcing anode plates remains difficult. Third, while enterprises that underwent maintenance in July are gradually resuming production, the pace of production recovery is slow due to difficulties in sourcing anode plates.
