Tin Midday Commentary on July 31, 2026
The tin market in China and overseas generally opened higher and moved higher, with the center of gravity shifting upward. The most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2609) opened at 419,000 yuan/mt, hit an intraday high of 429,770 yuan/mt, then moved sideways at elevated levels, and closed the morning at 425,700 yuan/mt, up 1.89% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Open interest increased by 12,038 lots from yesterday to 57,510 lots. On the LME, the trend was relatively mild, with three-month tin currently quoted at $55,020/mt, down slightly by 0.34%.
On the macro front:
(1) The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM (the first decline in six years), with the YoY rate easing to 3.7%; core PCE rose 0.1% MoM, below expectations. White House officials stated that persistently cooling inflation leaves room for Fed policy easing. However, divergent views between hawks and doves persist within the Fed, leaving the market somewhat cautious about the future rate hike path.
(2) Germany's July CPI rose to 2.8% and Spain's inflation reached 3.8%, as rising energy prices pushed up overall inflation in Europe, prompting the market to raise expectations for an ECB rate hike in September.
In the spot market, as futures prices continued to climb this morning and broke through the 425,000 yuan/mt high, suppliers actively quoted in line with the market. However, the rising center of futures prices intensified wait-and-see sentiment among downstream and end-user enterprises, notably suppressing purchase willingness. Only a small amount of tin ingot was purchased during the day to meet rigid demand, while most buyers opted to stay on the sidelines for now, waiting for price pullbacks, leaving limited growth in actual transaction volumes.
In summary, the strength in the tin market today was driven by a combination of bullish factors: a state TV report boosted market confidence; supply-side disruptions from domestic mines fueled concerns over tight supply; and the decline in the US dollar index further opened a potential channel for price increases. Open interest in the most-traded SHFE tin contract rose to over 57,000 lots from yesterday morning, reflecting strong capital attention and bulls' defensive willingness, which leaves relatively limited room for short-term price declines. Although high prices continue to objectively weigh on consumption, with capital and sentiment providing a mutually reinforcing floor, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue consolidating at highs in the near term.
