Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,904/mt. Affected by the weakening US dollar index, the overall center of LME lead has moved up somewhat recently. However, looking at the overnight trend, LME lead initially consolidated at highs, then its center gradually moved lower, finally closing at $1,893.5/mt, down 0.18%.
Overnight, pressured by lead ingot inventory buildup, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened lower at 15,680 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, expectations for secondary lead production cuts due to losses persisted. In the latter half, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified, and the contract mostly traded between 15,585 and 15,625 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 15,630 yuan/mt, down 0.67%, with open interest at 84,388 lots, an increase of 1,027 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, deciding to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting set the policy tone for H2 as "strengthening efforts and enhancing efficiency," accelerating the pace of fiscal spending and the utilization of bond funds, comprehensively employing and adjusting monetary policy tools as appropriate, expanding the supply of high-quality consumer goods, solidly advancing the investment and construction of the "Six Networks" plan, continuing the comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition, and promoting balanced trade development. He Lifeng held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer. The Ministry of Commerce introduced recent progress in intensive consultations between China and the EU: A consensus was reached on a new positioning of "stable and balanced key trading partners between China and the EU."
:
In the lead spot market yesterday, SHFE lead maintained a consolidation trend. Suppliers were not particularly eager to sell. In Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, quotations were mainly at premiums, but actual transactions were sluggish. Meanwhile, EXW cargo quotations from primary lead smelters continued to be mainly at discounts. Quotations in major producing areas were at discounts of 25-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price when leaving the factory. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead smelters sold along with the market, with secondary refined lead quotations at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Tax-exclusive cargoes in south-west China were priced even lower. Downstream enterprises continued to purchase as needed, with few inquiries, and transactions in the spot market showed no significant improvement for the time being.
Inventory: As of July 30, LME lead inventory stood at 445,850 mt, down 1,350 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 57,727 mt, up 149 mt from the previous trading day. SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions reached 68,500 mt, an increase of 6,100 mt from July 23, and an increase of less than 100 mt from July 27.
Lead price forecast for today:
Recently, lead prices continued to consolidate on a subdued note. Suppliers’ hedging willingness strengthened, and some lead ingots were gradually moved to delivery warehouses, driving up lead ingot social inventory WoW. Lead prices will remain under pressure. Approaching August, expectations for maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead smelters are increasing, while the traditional peak season for the lead-acid battery market has yet to appear. Downstream enterprises are cautious in production, with a small portion on holiday or about to be on holiday. Lead consumption remains relatively limited, and lead prices are expected to consolidate on a weak note.
Data Source Statement: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on the SMM internal database model, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.
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