Dollar weakness boosts copper prices, LME copper jumps over 1%; month-end consumption weakens, spot premiums under pressure [SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

Friday, July 31, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,754.5/mt, dipped to $13,740/mt early in the session, then its center rose to hit $13,836/mt before moving sideways and eventually closing at $13,978.5/mt, up 1.3%. Trading volume stood at 18,000 lots, and open interest was 246,000 lots, down 342 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,370 yuan/mt, dipped to 105,250 yuan/mt early in the session, then its center rose to hit 105,750 yuan/mt before moving sideways and finally closing at 105,560 yuan/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume reached 40,000 lots, and open interest was 197,000 lots, up 1,132 lots from the previous session, indicating bull position building.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Recap] News:
(1) According to Mining.com, Stormlands Mining, an Ireland-based data analytics firm, announced a new independent assessment of Awalé Resources’ Odienné gold project in northwestern the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire. As Odienné currently lacks a formal preliminary economic assessment (PEA), Stormlands used AI to extract data from Awalé’s April 2026 NI 43-101 technical report and built a baseline economic model. At a 5% discount rate, the model’s results plan to increase the project’s net present value (NPV) from $892 million to $2.25 billion, a 153% increase.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On July 30, the SHFE copper 2608 contract opened sharply higher in early trading and then retreated after a rapid rise. It opened at 105,000 yuan/mt, continued to climb and hit a session high of 105,440 yuan/mt, then fell back to close at 105,040 yuan/mt before the morning session ended. The backwardation between the spot month and the next month ranged from 130 yuan/mt to 200 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract was between a loss of 540 yuan/mt and a loss of 460 yuan/mt. The sales sentiment index for copper cathode in Shanghai was 2.84, down 0.21 MoM, and the purchase willingness index was 2.78, down 0.16 MoM. Historical data can be found in the database. Looking ahead to today, as month-end approaches, downstream enterprises are expected to purchase mainly based on rigid demand. Moreover, with SHFE copper prices edging up during the day, market purchase sentiment cooled, and spot trading activity decreased from the previous day. According to SMM, current downstream purchase willingness is largely concentrated at premiums below 200 yuan/mt. The psychological price gap between buyers and sellers remains significant, prompting suppliers to likely further lower their quotes to facilitate transactions. Low-priced non-registered copper saw relatively better transactions for some shipments due to the wide price spread with registered brands, but its boost to overall demand was limited. As for inventory, SMM recorded Shanghai’s social inventory at 69,500 mt, down 500 mt WoW from Monday; Jiangsu’s social inventory was 21,200 mt, down 500 mt WoW from Monday. East China’s inventory saw a slight destocking, which still provided some support to spot premiums. However, the inventory decline was relatively limited, and quotes for cargoes with invoices dated next month were relatively loose. In summary, given the support from low inventory, combined with weakening month-end consumption and a strong desire among buyers to bargain down prices, SHFE spot copper premiums against the 2608 contract are expected to hold today, but the overall center may continue to edge lower slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On July 30, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 150 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,455 yuan/mt, up 375 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,360 yuan/mt, up 375 yuan/mt. The electrolytic copper purchase sentiment index in Guangdong was 2.50, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, and the sales sentiment index was 2.96, up 0.02 (historical data available in the database). Overall, as month-end approached, sluggish consumption made it difficult for suppliers to hold prices firm; spot premiums retreated after a rapid rise, leading to generally light trading.
(3) Imported copper: On July 30, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $112/mt (price range $108–116/mt); the average B/L price was flat at $107/mt (range $104–110/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat at $75/mt (range $70–80/mt), with quotations referencing August-arrival cargoes.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 30, as of 11:30, the futures closing price was 105,040 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 265 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices were unchanged from the previous day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.43, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 2.05. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,132 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,120 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices shot up then pulled back, resulting in mediocre transaction sentiment along the copper scrap supply chain. During the day, holders of duty-unpaid copper scrap sought to sell at higher prices, but downstream purchase willingness was very weak, leading to overall mediocre transactions.
Prices: On the macro front, a joint US-Japan intervention to curb yen depreciation caused the USD/JPY exchange rate to plunge, while US June PCE data fell short of expectations, combining to weaken the US dollar index and support copper prices. Supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic copper improved slightly, marginally easing the tight supply situation; demand side, affected by the traditional consumption off-season and elevated copper prices, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement. Inventory side, as of Thursday, July 30, SMM national mainstream copper inventories rose by 2,700 mt WoW to 111,900 mt, but fell by 800 mt from Monday, with total inventory down 7,400 mt YoY from 119,300 mt. Overall, copper prices today are expected to drift higher within a narrow range.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment or research decisions. Clients should make decisions with caution, and not replace their independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by the client are unrelated to SMM.]