SMM Analysis: "Yinman Mining Accident: Production Halt and Financial Impact on Xingye Silver&Tin"

I. Incident Review: Four Days From Mining Suspension to Beneficiation Suspension

According to the company’s initial announcement on 7/28 (2026-62) and the progress announcement on 7/31 (2026-66), the incident unfolded as follows:

• 7/26 15:30: An accident occurred during production operations at the 19-1 to 25-1 section of the West Main Haulage in the 750 sublevel of Underground Zone 3 of Yinman Mining, resulting in one fatality and no injuries.
• 7/28 11:47: The company received the “Decision on On-site Handling Measures” ((Xi) Emergency On-site Decision [2026] No. 257) from the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau,and the mining area was suspended, while the beneficiation plant continued normal production. The announcement also disclosed that existing surface ore inventory totaled 350,000 mt, sufficient to support beneficiation plant production for about 2.5 months.
• 7/30: Yinman Mining again received the “Decision on On-site Handling Measures” ((Xi) Emergency On-site Decision [2026] No. 260) from the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau,and the beneficiation tailings system was suspended simultaneously.

The original announcement also disclosed a key time window—on 7/14, the company had just obtained approval for construction land use from the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and Yinman Mining’s 2.97 million mt/year expansion project was about to commence (plan to conduct ore-fed commissioning in 2028Q4), increasing capacity from 1.65 million mt/year to 2.97 million mt/year.The expansion project encountered a suspension of existing capacity before it officially commenced, making the impact on short-term production more direct.

II. Capacity and Earnings Exposure: The Achilles’ Heel Behind Yinman Mining’s “Nearly 80% of Net Profit” Contribution

Xingye Silver&Tin recorded 5.56 billion yuan in revenue and 1.7 billion yuan in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 (YoY +11.4%); Yinman Mining alone generated 3.062 billion yuan in revenue and 1.346 billion yuan in net profit in 2025,accounting for 55.12% of the company’s consolidated revenue and 79.18% of net profit attributable to shareholders. In 2026Q1, Yinman Mining recorded revenue of 962 million yuan and net profit of 475 million yuan, with its single-quarter contribution still at roughly 45% of revenue and 55% of net profit (estimated based on the midpoint of the earnings guidance).

As disclosed in the announcement,Yinman Mining has a production scale of 1.65 million mt/year, primarily engaged in the mining and beneficiation of silver, tin, copper, lead, zinc, and antimony. If 2025 results are linearly extrapolated, each full month of suspension corresponds to an estimated revenue loss of about 255 million yuan and a net profit loss of about 112 million yuan—a full three-month suspension would imply a net profit loss of ~340 million yuan, equivalent to 20% of the company’s full-year 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders.

Comparison of 2026 H1 Earnings Guidance　On 7/15, the company guided 2026H1 net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.14-2.37 billion yuan, YoY +168.95% to +197.86% (2025H1: 796 million yuan). This production suspension occurred at month-end July and had no impact on 2026H1 results; starting from Q3, the company will enter an "incident impact period," with the effects concentrated in August-December results.

III. Sector Impact: Triple Overlay of Tin, Silver, and Sector Sentiment

Tin Side: Tin is one of the by-products of Yinman Mine. The 1.65 million mt raw ore processing capacity corresponds to a significant share of the company’s tin concentrates output (specific tonnage was not disclosed in the announcement). Xingye Silver&Tin is also a core stock in the A-share tin sector; on July 24, the company had just issued a "stock price fluctuation announcement."

Silver Side: One of the main reasons for Xingye Silver&Tin’s high growth in 2026H1 was "the gradual capacity release at Yubang Mine, with mining silver production and sales both increasing sharply YoY," plus the rise in silver prices. The Yinman Mine suspension will have limited short-term impact on the A-share silver supply side (the company mainly produces mine silver, not standard silver), but event-driven safe-haven sentiment may transmit to the silver futures market.

Sector Sentiment: The A-share tin sector (Tin Shares, Huaxi Nonferrous, etc.) historically exhibits a "short-term speculation + divergence" reaction to peer mine accidents—a high probability of an initial simultaneous decline, followed by divergence over 1-2 weeks among stocks with different exposures. This is a single-company event for Xingye Silver&Tin, differing in nature from sector-wide events from 2024 to 2025 (such as production resumptions in Wa State, Myanmar).

IV. Risk Warnings and Tracking Points

• Production Resumption Timeline: The announcement did not specify a date. Based on the typical rectification practice for non-metal mine accidents, regulatory inspection and acceptance usually take 1-3 months; referring to the production resumption timeline of the "2·23" accident in 2019, the probability of it taking over 6 months is not low.
• Key Data Points: (1) monthly concentrates/metals production; (2) 2026Q3 earnings forecast (mid-to-late October window); (3) the issuance timing of the subsequent "Rectification Completion Approval" by the emergency management bureau.
• Related Party Transaction Risk: The announcement simultaneously disclosed that procedures such as the "by-election of non-independent directors" and "subsidiary providing guarantees for the company" were completed on July 30, with no significant impact on corporate governance.

Disclaimer This document is a research analysis based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. The cause of the accident is subject to the regulatory investigation results; the duration of the production suspension and the impact on company performance are subject to the company’s subsequent disclosures.