Lithium Carbonate Weekly Market Summary: 7.24-7.3 Spot Lithium Carbonate Price Center Edged Up Slightly WoW [SMM Weekly Review]

Spot lithium carbonate prices moved sideways in a narrow range this week, with the price center edging up slightly WoW. The futures market consolidated on a subdued note. The price range of the most-traded 2609 contract drifted lower from 143,300-148,200 yuan/mt early in the week to 140,600-149,400 yuan/mt. Mid-week, it hit a high of 149,400 yuan/mt before pulling back, and dipped to a low of 140,600 yuan/mt. Open interest continued to decline, with both longs and shorts mainly reducing positions.

Market transactions showed a pattern of "downstream purchasing as needed and upstream holding prices firm while holding back from selling," and actual transactions were relatively active. Upstream lithium chemical plants had strong sentiment to hold prices firm and hold back from selling for spot orders, with willingness to sell remaining sluggish. Some enterprises anchored their willingness to sell spot orders at above 160,000 yuan/mt. Current supply was mainly based on long-term contract guarantees and "long-term contract + growth" delivery models. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of purchasing as needed and buying the dip, with relatively strong willingness to buy the dip below 145,000 yuan/mt for just-in-time needs, but limited acceptance of higher prices. There was little large-scale stockpiling, and procurement was generally stable as it was month-end. Traders were affected by both upstream supply contraction and limited spot order circulation, as well as downstream just-in-time procurement, and remained in a destocking state. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active.

Supply side, production continued to decline significantly, and upstream inventory remained low. This week, China's lithium carbonate production continued to decline sharply, significantly affected by maintenance and production halts at lithium chemical plants using spodumene and lepidolite. Inventory changes: Upstream lithium chemical plants still maintained their strategy of holding back from selling spot orders, with persistently sluggish willingness to sell; combined with multiple plants entering maintenance, inventory remained low. Downstream material plants continued their pace of purchasing as needed; as it was month-end, procurement was generally stable, and inventory was basically stable. Traders, affected by both upstream supply contraction and downstream just-in-time procurement, continued destocking.

The funding side showed a pattern of both longs and shorts reducing positions. Futures open interest continued to decline this week, indicating that both longs and shorts were closing positions; market wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and prices lacked a clear directional driver. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a sideways consolidation pattern. Supply side, ongoing maintenance and production halts at some lithium chemical plants and tightening circulation of spodumene ore provided support for prices, with supply contraction being the main bullish factor currently. Demand side, downstream dip-buying and purchasing as needed continued, but large-scale concentrated stockpiling had not yet appeared, lacking sustained upward momentum. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants, changes in downstream restocking pace, and production schedule expectations for August.