Jul 30, 2026 Thursday
Overnight trading: LME copper opened at $13,636/mt, dipped to $13,567.5/mt early, then saw its center rise to touch $13,633/mt, and subsequently fluctuated wildly before closing at $13,622/mt, down 0.16%. Trading volume was 13,000 lots, and open interest fell to 247,000 lots, down 325 lots from the previous trading day, with bulls reducing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 104,560 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 104,710 yuan/mt early, then its center edged lower and dipped to 104,320 yuan/mt near the close, eventually settling at 104,520 yuan/mt, down 0.26%. Trading volume stood at 33,000 lots, and open interest was 195,000 lots, down 25.61 million lots from the previous trading day, as bulls cut positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On Wednesday, July 29, Glencore reported that, driven by higher ore grades at its core mines, copper production increased by 15% YoY in H1. Its trading business is expected to generate about $3.3 billion in adjusted core earnings, with full-year results likely to significantly exceed the upper end of the guidance range. The Swiss-based commodity trader and miner produced 397,000 mt of copper in H1, up from 343,900 mt in the same period of 2025, mainly due to improved ore grades at its African operations and the Antamina mine in Peru.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On July 29, SMM #1 copper cathode was quoted at a premium of 230-330 yuan/mt against the front-month 2608 contract, averaging 280 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2608 contract moved sideways in a consolidating pattern during the morning session, remaining relatively stable. It opened at 104,950 yuan/mt and mainly traded between 104,850 yuan/mt and 105,090 yuan/mt, touching a session high of 105,090 yuan/mt before edging down to test 104,840 yuan/mt, and closed at 104,940 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was 120-170 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for the 2608 contract was between a loss of 640 yuan/mt and a loss of 550 yuan/mt. Selling sentiment in Shanghai stood at 3.05, up 0.14 from the previous trading day, while purchase sentiment was 2.94, up 0.10. Looking ahead to today, downstream users are mainly making just-in-time procurement, but inquiry and transaction activity have improved from the previous period, with purchase sentiment rebounding for consecutive days, providing some support for spot premiums. With the month-end approaching, some traders and suppliers still need to restock cargoes with invoices dated this month, so their purchase willingness is relatively strong. However, low-priced cargoes are hard to find, and quotes for standard-quality copper with this-month invoices are basically holding around a premium of 300 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, offers for cargoes with next-month invoices and non-registered copper are relatively lower, and the price spread between invoice types and brands remains notable. Overall, supported by moderate just-in-time procurement, month-end restocking demand, and scarce low-priced cargoes, spot premiums for Shanghai spot copper against the 2608 contract are expected to remain today, with the overall center likely to edge up slightly.
(2) Guangdong: On July 29, #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a premium of 80-150 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, averaging 115 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 10-30 yuan/mt, averaging 20 yuan/mt, also up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,080 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,985 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. Purchase willingness for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.55, up 0.01 from the previous trading day, and selling sentiment was 2.94, up 0.01. Overall, with signs of declining inventory, suppliers held prices firm, spot premiums edged up, and overall trading was moderate.
(3) Imported copper: On July 29, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $112/mt (price range $108-116/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $107/mt (price range $104-110/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, quoted at $75/mt (price range $70-80/mt), with quotes referencing August arrivals.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 29, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,940 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 280 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On July 29, secondary copper raw material prices fell 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index decreased to 2.42, and the procurement sentiment index decreased to 2.03. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,047 yuan/mt, up 174 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,040 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices weakened. Many secondary copper rod enterprises had sufficient earlier procurement volumes, while downstream cargo pick-up gradually slowed. With ample raw material inventory at secondary copper rod enterprises, their demand for secondary copper raw materials was not high. Meanwhile, secondary copper raw material traders indicated that market circulation had not notably decreased, but as demand declined, suppliers had to slightly reduce prices to sell.
Price: On the macro front, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, with an overall neutral statement. Copper prices maintained a consolidation pattern. Subsequently, market expectations for Fed rate hikes this year were somewhat trimmed. On the geopolitical front, Trump stated that he would strike Iran in response to the attack on US forces in the Middle East, reigniting risks of conflict in the Middle East. On the fundamentals side, supply side, low-priced circulating cargoes were scarce, and overall market supply was tight. Demand side, downstream users made just-in-time procurement, while some traders had restocking needs at month-end. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher in a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions with caution and should not substitute this for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
