[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Chinese Taiwan Stainless Market Awaits August Prices Amid Cost Pressure

[7.29 Morning Meeting Minutes] The US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a press conference as usual at 2:30 a.m., which has been dubbed by the industry as the most unpredictable Fed decision. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged sharply in the night session, with prices gradually rebounding in the morning session before closing at 131,660 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. The short-term trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) is expected to be 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel Industries reported a 4% year-on-year increase in nickel ore production to 4.13 million wmt during the quarter despite an eight-day mining suspension in April. Ore sales declined 5% to 2.88 million wmt, while the average realised selling price rose 50% to US$37.8/wmt following Indonesia's revised nickel ore HPM pricing mechanism. Higher realised prices lifted adjusted EBITDA by 58% to a record US$45.7 million despite increased royalty payments and operating costs. Following the quarter, the company submitted an application to increase its 2026 RKAB sales quota to 19 million wmt, which is currently awaiting approval from the Indonesian government.

Chinese Taiwan’s imports of 300-series stainless steel hot-rolled products rebounded to around 54,400 mt in June, up 46.4% month on month, ending two consecutive months of decline and reaching the second-highest level this year. Import prices rose for a fifth straight month to a two-year-and-eight-month high. Market participants attributed the increase to Indonesia’s nickel production restrictions, which lifted raw material costs and prompted Tsingshan to raise export offers. First-half imports reached approximately 284,400 mt, up 3.7% year on year, adding to cost pressure on local mills.