7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes
Market Hot Topics:
According to SMM, export customs clearance delays recently occurred for some cargoes loaded with Indonesian NPI, as the goods were subject to newly added strategic mineral element detection. Market sources indicated that some mineral product export verification processes now require simultaneous detection of 17 rare earth elements (REEs), uranium (U), and thorium (Th). The additional detection procedures extended the time needed to issue inspection reports, causing delays in customs clearance and shipment for some NPI cargoes. This enhanced inspection began after recent enforcement cases involving PT Putraprima Mineral Mandiri (PMM), PT Sucofindo, and the customs office at Pangkalpinang port. Currently, the relevant inspections may continue to lengthen export document processing times and have some impact on short-term NPI cargo shipments, but there is no indication that Indonesia's NPI production or overall export supply has been affected.
Macro:
(1) Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran on July 24 (after 13 consecutive nights of strikes), mainly due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on July 26. Brent crude oil opened sharply lower on Monday, tumbling 5% to around $92, and WTI fell to near $84.70.
(2) US Fed policy meeting on July 29: The market widely expects the rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
Spot Market:
On July 27, the SMM average price of #1 refined nickel was 133,000 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,200 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the prior day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400 to 500 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) fell in the morning session, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%.
The US-Iran conflict hit the pause button, crude oil prices dropped sharply, and the cost support logic from sulphur weakened, causing nickel prices to pull back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects rates to stay unchanged, easing macro pressure. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract in the near term is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.
Nickel Sulphate
On July 27, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate edged up.
Cost side, influenced by the news of export disruptions for some Indonesian nickel products, nickel prices consolidated today and the immediate production cost of nickel sulphate rebounded recently. Supply side, the tight supply of intermediate products persisted, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices such as sulphuric acid remained elevated, some nickel salt plants had expectations for production cuts, and facing the rebound in nickel prices, some enterprises showed willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, as nickel prices fell sharply MoM and some downstream enterprises accumulated inventory, downstream restocking sentiment was weak and their acceptance of nickel salt prices was relatively low. Today, the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor for upstream nickel salt smelters was 1.8, the procurement sentiment factor for downstream precursor plants was 2.6, and the sentiment factor for integrated enterprises was 2.5 (historical data can be accessed via the database).
Looking ahead, as the month-end procurement period approaches, market activity is expected to gradually recover, and nickel sulphate prices may rebound somewhat.
NPI
July 27 news – SMM’s high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 2, down 0.03 MoM; the upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.03, down 0.06 MoM; and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.97, flat MoM. The spot market for high-grade NPI remained locked in a stalemate today, with spot transactions staying sluggish and firm bids scarce. Trading continued to center around average prices plus premiums, where divergence persisted between upstream and downstream players over premium levels. On the demand side, several large steel mills had ample early stockpiles, with raw material inventories sufficient to support forward production, leaving no immediate need for procurement. Mills preferred to negotiate at parity, which failed to match suppliers’ premium offers. While a consensus on bottom-level support held, with the market widely judging limited downside room, off-season procurement interest was hard to boost. On the supply side, some suppliers faced shipment disruptions and suspended sales, slowing the pace of near-term circulating cargo releases. Lacking concentrated transaction guidance, the market moved sideways in the short term, with attention now focused on port arrival pace, mill restocking intentions, and cargo shipment conditions.
Stainless Steel
July 27 SMM news – SS futures trended lower overall, pulling back further. With the US suspending airstrikes on Iran, expectations of sulphur supply tightness eased, and SHFE nickel pulled back, dragging SS down in tandem. Though news of restricted Indonesian NPI shipments emerged, its impact remains unconfirmed so far. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,690 yuan/mt. Spot market side, although weakening SS futures weighed on market confidence, spot stainless steel prices had not risen notably earlier, so current quotes remained largely stable. However, against a backdrop of persistently weak transactions, some low-priced cargoes have already appeared.
SS most-traded futures contract: At 10:15 am, SS2609 traded at 14,710 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were estimated at 310-710 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with uncut edge, the average price was flat in Wuxi and flat in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell by 75 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat.
Positive macro and industry factors worked in tandem this week, supporting nickel and stainless steel futures in a consolidating on a strong note. Macro side, US inflation expectations pulled back, while ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions continued to disrupt market risk sentiment. Industry side, the expectation of limited additional RKAB nickel ore quotas in Indonesia continued to ferment, effectively anchoring the nickel price bottom and driving SHFE nickel to consolidate on a strong note, with SS futures following the nickel price trend and holding up well. Spot and inventory side, SS futures consolidated on a strong note this week, repairing market confidence and driving a concentrated release of spot transactions early in the week. Just-in-time procurement of low-priced supply remained relatively stable, ensuring basic transaction resilience. However, the market was still in the traditional consumption off-season, with limited effective end-use demand from downstream terminals, insufficient just-in-time procurement support, and weak acceptance of high-priced supply. This led to insufficient upward momentum for spot prices, and price gains significantly lagged behind futures. During the week, spot prices fluctuated within a range with limited changes. On the inventory side, the logic turned significantly weaker. The impact of typhoon weather that had previously restricted arrivals faded, and previously stranded off-market supply arrived and entered warehouses in a concentrated manner. Combined with mills continuing normal allocations and ample supply releases into the market, against the backdrop of end-use demand struggling to effectively absorb incremental supply, social inventory of stainless steel built up slightly this week, with off-season inventory pressure beginning to emerge marginally. Cost and profit side, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified in the raw material segment this week, the price spread between finished products and raw materials remained basically stable, and the smelting margins of steel mills held steady overall. During the week, stainless steel mills maintained their desire to bargain down raw material prices, adopted a cautious procurement attitude, and overall raw material transactions remained weak. Under the pressure of mills persistently pushing for lower prices and sluggish just-in-time procurement, NPI prices remained stable overall, without significant fluctuations; stainless steel scrap followed the strong trend of finished product futures and edged up slightly. This week, the smelting profit margins of stainless steel mills remained basically stable, with no significant changes in industry profitability. Overall, the stainless steel market this week displayed a game-playing pattern where macro factors supported futures, the off-season constrained spot, inventory built up somewhat, and profits operated steadily. Macro sentiment and expectations of tighter nickel supply supported futures to consolidate on a strong note, and the recovery in futures revived market transactions. However, weak off-season just-in-time procurement and insufficient acceptance of high prices continued to cap the upside room for spot. Improved weather brought concentrated arrivals of supply, combined with normal allocations from mills, pushing inventory accumulation slightly. On the raw material side, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts was balanced, price spreads between finished products and raw materials remained stable, and mill profitability held steady. In the short term, the market will continue this structural trading pattern of strong futures and mildly fluctuating spot. Future focus should be on tracking changes in macro sentiment, the trend of SHFE nickel futures, the strength of downstream off-season just-in-time procurement release, the pace of inventory buildup, and the bargaining dynamics in raw material procurement.
Nickel ore:
Philippine market:
Pricing: Philippine nickel ore prices held steady overall this week. The CIF China quotes for Ni 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.5% ore were approximately $46/wmt, $56.5/wmt, and $64.5/wmt, respectively, flat WoW. However, ocean freight rates rose markedly. The freight rates from Surigao to Lianyungang Port and Ningde Port increased by $0.75/wmt each, while the Surigao–IWIP route saw the largest rise, up $1/wmt. The freight rate increase was mainly driven by higher international oil prices and adjustments in ferroalloy prices, but downstream players held ample inventory and adopted cautious procurement, thus failing to push ore prices higher for the time being.
Weather: In the coming week, weather conditions across the major mining areas of the Philippines were generally stable. Zambales was expected to experience heavy rainfall during July 22–24, which could briefly disrupt mine and port operations. Surigao experienced intermittent light to moderate rain, with limited impact on production and shipments. Overall, there was no significant impact on national nickel ore supply.
Supply, demand, and market sentiment: The Philippine market maintained a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Mines continued to ramp up output, and spot supply was ample, while downstream procurement remained focused on medium- to high-grade ore. Low-grade ore inventory continued to accumulate, and transactions were sluggish. Under the influence of rising inventory, some mines had moderately lowered their quotations for low-grade ore, and overall market sentiment was predominantly wait-and-see.
Market outlook: Philippine nickel ore supply is expected to remain ample in the coming week, with downstream procurement mainly based on hand-to-mouth demand. High-grade ore demand was relatively stable, while low-grade ore prices still faced downward pressure due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation.
Indonesian market:
Pricing: As Indonesia’s HMA and HPM for the second half of July officially took effect on July 15, domestic nickel ore prices adjusted downward in tandem. Currently, the CIF price for limonite ore with 1.2% Ni is about $29/wmt, and for 1.3% Ni about $31/wmt; the CIF prices for saprolite ore with 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% Ni are about $54.9/wmt, $61.2/wmt, and $66.1/wmt, respectively. Affected by the HPM cut, market transaction prices pulled back by about $0.5/wmt WoW, and transactions are now largely based on the new HPM. Against a backdrop of ample supply and high smelter inventory, short-term ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.
Weather: In the coming week (July 20–26), major mining areas including Morowali, Kolaka, Konawe, and Weda will see intermittent light to moderate rain, accompanied by localized thundershowers. Overall rainfall will be scattered and will not significantly affect mine production, transportation, or port loading operations.
Supply-demand and market sentiment side, Indonesia's domestic nickel ore market maintained an overall loose supply pattern. Inventories at RKEF and HPAL smelters can support approximately 2–3 months of production, with downstream purchases still dominated by rigid demand and no significant restocking willingness for now. Mine production and shipments are normal, saprolite ore supply is ample, and the successive commissioning of new HPAL projects further eases supply concerns. Transaction prices for limonite ore are around $33–35/wmt, small and medium mines are holding back from selling, and actual deals remain concentrated among large mines. Some smelters have raised their procurement grade to Ni 1.45%–1.50%, further dampening demand for low-grade ore. Most mines still hope for transaction prices $3–5/wmt above HPM, with buyers and sellers continuing to wrestle and market transactions remaining subdued.
Policy side, the market continues to keep a close eye on the progress of RKAB supplementary quota approvals and export policies. Indonesia plans to fully implement a single export management system for strategic minerals on September 1, 2026. The nickel industry chain has not yet been included in the regulatory scope, so the short-term impact is limited. In addition, under Government Regulation No. 21 of 2026, Indonesia exempts China, the US, Australia, and Canada from stricter DHE SDA foreign exchange retention requirements, which helps reduce capital costs for export enterprises, but is not expected to have a significant impact on nickel ore supply-demand or prices.
Market outlook, the supply-demand pattern of Indonesia's nickel ore market is expected to remain stable over the coming week, with ample supply and purchases still driven mainly by rigid demand, and prices expected to stay steady. As the deadline for RKAB supplementary quota approvals approaches, the market will continue to watch how the approval results affect subsequent supply and price trends.
![[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] India's CCI Dismisses Complaint Over Jindal Stainless's Indonesian Slab and HRC Sourcing](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/GmHLU20251217171733.jpg)
