The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 418,780 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. Overnight, LME tin closed up 1.11% at $54,341/mt. Over the weekend, easing US-Iran tensions drove a sharp pullback in oil prices and diminished inflation concerns, warming risk appetite in the nonferrous metals sector and allowing tin prices to open higher on the back of this.
Tech Sector: AI and Memory Chain Dual Engines Boost Tin Solder Demand Expectations
• ChangXin Technology surged 465.82% on its STAR Market debut yesterday, with its market cap reaching 3.28 trillion yuan to top the A-share market. The semiconductor equipment and materials sub-sector rose across the board; Zhichun Technology hit the daily upper limit, and NAURA Technology received net buying of 298 million yuan from major funds.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are set to reach long-term memory chip supply cooperation worth up to $950 billion with US tech giants such as Nvidia, extending the AI computing power capex boom.
• SEMI raised its 2026 global semiconductor equipment sales growth forecast to 23.2%. Delivery lead times for the world’s top five equipment makers extended by 50%–100%, strengthening the domestic substitution logic.
Fundamentals: Tight Ore Supply and Low Inventories Build Bottom Support
• Slow production resumption in Myanmar’s Wa State: Affected by the ongoing rainy season and water accumulation in mining areas, tin ore output in June was only 6,392 mt in physical content. July domestic tin ore imports are expected to be basically flat MoM, and full production resumption has been delayed to 2027.
• Inventories at historically low levels: As of July 25, LME tin inventory was around 7,231 mt, and SHFE inventory was 5,456 mt.
Risk Warning
This week is packed with macro events—the US Fed’s July FOMC meeting (July 28-29), China’s Politburo meeting, and the concentrated release of earnings from overseas tech giants—front-loading volatility. Overnight, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.38%, with a two-day cumulative decline of 6.6%. Nvidia and Micron were shorted further by “Big Short” investor Michael Burry. The sharp correction in US semiconductor stocks may spill over into China’s A-share memory/semiconductor sectors, and tin prices may fluctuate in both directions in the short term in line with tech stock sentiment.
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![Declines in chip stocks outside China disturbed market sentiment, and the futures center consolidated to the downside [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CwQfz20251217171750.jpeg)
