SMM July 27, 2026 News:
According to the latest data from China's General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative exports of aluminum foil (HS code 7607-series) reached 683,200 mt in January-June 2026, with a total export value of approximately $1.479 billion. Among them, June exports hit 131,000 mt, marking the H1 peak, up 9.70% MoM and 24% YoY. The significant surge in June exports was mainly driven by overseas clients locking in export orders earlier when the SHFE/LME price ratio was still in a widening phase, boosting shipments for the month.
In terms of product mix, aluminum foil exports in H1 were dominated by not-rolled, not-backed aluminum foil (0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2mm), which reached 263,700 mt and accounted for 38.6%; followed by other not-backed aluminum foil (21.4%) and ultra-thin aluminum foil with thickness ≤ 0.007mm (20.9%).
By export destination, in H1 2026, Thailand ranked first with 64,200 mt, followed by Indonesia (53,900 mt) and India (52,400 mt). Notably, the Middle East region (UAE + Saudi Arabia) combined exports reached 70,100 mt, accounting for 10.3% of total H1 exports, and has become an important destination cluster for China's aluminum foil exports. In terms of monthly trend, the UAE's exports rose gradually from 2,515 mt in March to 5,383 mt in June; Saudi Arabia's exports rebounded from 4,868 mt in March to 7,568 mt in June.
By export registration location, Jiangsu province led firmly with 171,800 mt, taking up 25.1% of total H1 exports, followed by Shandong (76,300 mt), Henan (74,300 mt), Shanghai (73,300 mt), and Zhejiang (66,700 mt). The top five regions together accounted for 54.9%.
Since late June, the SHFE/LME price ratio has rapidly recovered, and the arbitrage window for aluminum semis exports has quickly closed. This change directly suppressed new export orders for aluminum foil. The pullback in aluminum prices weakened downstream cargo pick-up willingness, and some stockpiling orders were delayed in their production schedules. However, orders previously accepted under fixed-price models were still executed as planned, providing some support to current exports. According to SMM survey, order production schedules at aluminum foil export enterprises have now extended to September. Facing a narrowing price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and compressed export profits, enterprises are showing strong price rigidity in new order negotiations for October-November, with no intention to cut prices to take orders. If the SHFE/LME price ratio remains unfavorable for exports, new order signings in Q4 could decline significantly.
Based on a comprehensive assessment, SMM maintains its forecast of China's total aluminum foil exports at about 1.3 million mt for full-year 2026. With 683,200 mt already achieved in H1, about 616,800 mt need to be completed in H2, implying an average monthly export volume of about 102,800 mt, down 9.7% from the H1 monthly average of 113,900 mt. This target is somewhat challenging under the current SHFE/LME price ratio environment, but considering the execution inertia of already locked-in orders, the 1.3 million mt target for the full year remains highly achievable.
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