Imported arrivals supplement spot supply, weak consumption weighs on SHFE copper premiums [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM July 27 News:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract were quoted at a premium of 230-330 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 280 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2608 contract repeatedly retreated after rapid rises, with its overall center edging up slightly. The contract opened at 105,080 yuan/mt, initially climbed to 105,320 yuan/mt, then pulled back to a range of 105,100-105,130 yuan/mt. It subsequently rose again, touching an intraday high of 105,440 yuan/mt, before easing slightly to 105,160 yuan/mt. Towards the close, prices edged up modestly, with the closing price at 105,230 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 120 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract for current-month delivery stood between a loss of 500 yuan/mt and a loss of 430 yuan/mt.

During the day, the sales sentiment indicator for copper cathode in the Shanghai region registered 2.94, down 0.08 WoW, and the purchase sentiment indicator was 2.74, down 0.20 WoW. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers initially quoted premiums of 300-340 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper with invoices dated this month. Subsequently, some suppliers significantly lowered their offers, quoting Tiefeng cargoes with invoices dated next month at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, while Zijin, Yuguang, and Zhongtiaoshan cargoes with invoices dated this month changed hands at premiums of 300-310 yuan/mt. High-quality copper brands such as Jinchuan (plate) and Jintun (plate) were quoted at premiums of 330-350 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated this month. In the second session, suppliers further cut their quotes. JCC, Zhongjin, Zhongtiaoshan, and Tiefeng cargoes with invoices dated next month traded at premiums of 220-280 yuan/mt. After some low-priced cargoes were transacted, cheap cargoes became hard to find in the market, with standard-quality copper mostly quoted at premiums of 250-280 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month. Registered SX-EW copper brands such as Esox, Myanmar, and BMKMOOK were transacted at premiums of 160-200 yuan/mt for cargoes with invoices dated next month.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, as month-end approaches, suppliers are gradually shifting to quoting cargoes with invoices dated next month. The divergence in invoice structures is widening the price spread between cargoes with this month's and next month's invoices. Some buyers still need to cover current-month invoice requirements, keeping near-dated invoice cargoes relatively tight. On the end-use consumption side, copper prices staying high continued to depress downstream purchase willingness, with end-user transactions remaining sluggish during the day. Suppliers had to cut quotes repeatedly to secure only small transaction volumes, reflecting the significant dampening effect of current high copper prices on demand. According to SMM, some downstream processing enterprises, affected by accumulated finished product inventories, further slowed their procurement pace. On the supply side, some imported cargoes were observed circulating in the spot market during the day, including brands such as Peruvian plate, ESOX, and Myanmar. The gradual arrival of imports is replenishing spot supply, marginally easing the previously tight availability of circulating cargoes. SMM recorded social inventory in the Shanghai region at 70,000 mt, up 1,700 mt WoW from last Thursday, while social inventory in the Jiangsu region stood at 21,700 mt, down 300 mt WoW from last Thursday. In summary, amid supplementation from import arrivals, weak consumption, and month-end invoice divergence, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to maintain premiums tomorrow.