[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On July 27, nickel prices edged down, and the US-Iran conflict pressed the pause button.

SMM nickel July 27 news:

Macro and market news:

(1) Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes on Iran on July 24 (after 13 consecutive nights of strikes), mainly due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude opened sharply lower on Monday, dropping 5% to around $92, while WTI fell to around $84.7.

(2) Fed meeting on July 29: the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.

Spot market:

On July 27, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 133,000 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,200 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400 to 500 yuan/mt.

Futures market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) fell in early trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%.

The US-Iran conflict hit a pause, crude oil prices fell sharply, the cost support logic from sulfur weakened, and nickel prices pulled back. The Fed’s July FOMC meeting will be held on July 29, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract in the short term is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.