Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,891.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead consolidated on a subdued note, trading mostly within the $1,885–1,890/mt range. Entering the European session, news of easing Middle East tensions emerged, and lead and zinc prices strengthened in tandem. LME lead briefly surged above $1,900/mt. However, mixed macro news and fluctuating market sentiment pulled back LME lead after the spike, and it eventually closed at $1,885.5/mt, down 0.08%.
Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,730 yuan/mt. Affected by repeated macro factors and growing expectations of lead ingot inventory buildup in China, SHFE lead fell stepwise after opening, approaching 15,600 yuan/mt, and ultimately closed at 15,640 yuan/mt, down 0.54%. Open interest was 105,000 lots, down 1,628 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
On Friday, reports said Pakistan explored restarting US-Iran negotiations. Trump stated the US is negotiating with Iran and did not rule out increasing military strikes. Trump reportedly ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran on Saturday to leave room for negotiation. US-Iran mutual strikes paused: The Iranian military said on Sunday that the US had ceased strikes for two consecutive nights, and Iran suspended reciprocal strikes. Red Sea tensions escalated: Yemen's Houthi forces attacked Saudi Red Sea port oil facilities twice on Saturday, with Saudi airstrikes in response. The Israeli Prime Minister is reportedly set to travel to the US this week with "significant intelligence" concerning Iran's nuclear weapons.
:
In the lead spot market last Friday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate on a subdued note. Some suppliers had low inventory at month-end, with scarce quotes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets. Meanwhile, EXW cargoes of primary lead smelters were ample, and suppliers actively quoted to sell. Quotations in mainstream production areas were at discounts of 50-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, with some deals at even lower levels. For secondary lead, smelters in south China sold along with market trends, with quotes mostly at small discounts. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises only purchased as needed. Although some showed willingness to purchase on dips, actual purchases were cautious, and market transactions were sluggish.
Inventory: As of July 24, LME lead inventory stood at 448,850 mt, down 475 mt from the previous trading day. Total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 65,180 mt, down 3,566 mt from the previous week.
Lead price forecast today:
Approaching August, the market holds expectations for the traditional peak season of lead-acid batteries, but actual consumption has been unsatisfactory so far. With smelter production rising steadily, lead ingot inventory faces further accumulation pressure. Currently, lead ingot inventory is mainly concentrated in smelters' plant inventories. Going forward, the shift of invisible inventory into visible inventory warrants attention, as it may continue to weigh on lead prices.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute any decision-making suggestions.
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