[SMM Steel]

For the 2026-2030, Vietnam expands their North-South high-speed railway, the Hanoi-Hai Phong-Lao Cai railway, and the Ho Chi Minh City metro lines. To support it, several mills like Hoa Phat is investing VND 14,000 billion in a rail mill at its Dung Quat complex, with a designed annual capacity of 700,000 tons. Beside that, VinMetal & Pomina targets to achieve total of 5 million tons from 2026-2030.

There are actually only small additional to the previous antidumping duties created by Thailand to Chinese Steel Wire. Now the duty is now covering certain hot-rolled alloy steel wire. The duty rates will affect around 15.04% to 36.79% of the CIF value. However, due to small modifications, actually the duty is not enough to alter essential characteristics, end-uses, or nature of the product.

The most-traded HRC contract moved lower before rebounding today, ending at 3,289, edging down 0.12%. HRC prices drifted lower this week, with sluggish trading. Supply side, rolling mill maintenance increased this week, and overall HRC production edged lower. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened this week, with high temperatures and rainfall weighing on downstream activity; end-users purchased on an as-needed basis and export growth was insufficient. Inventory buildup continued, and weak demand is unlikely to change in the short term. Inventory side, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses (large sample) tracked by SMM this week stood at 4.3937 million mt, up 60,600 mt MoM, or up 1.40% MoM. By region, inventory buildup was more pronounced in South and Northeast China, while central and eastern regions saw slight destocking. Cost side, the average price of iron ore edged down and the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, weakening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, further coke price cuts will erode cost support, and poor off-season demand leaves HRC prices lacking upward momentum. However, shrinking HRC supply will provide support for prices. In summary, the most-traded HRC contract next week is expected to consolidate within the 3,260-3,340 range, struggling to move in either direction. Monitor macro factors and raw material disruptions for potential periodic market swings.