Grasberg Production Resumption Progress Meets Expectations, Some Chilean Mining Areas Disrupted, SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index Falls Below -$150 [SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Weekly Review]

On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$154.76/dmt, down $8.61/dmt from the previous reading of -$146.15/dmt. The 20% grade domestic trade ore payable indicator came in at 98%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period.

This week, transaction volumes in the copper concentrates spot market decreased from last week, with some mines conducting tenders. In spot transactions, a trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore for September shipment to a smelter at an index minus $20/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 20,000 mt of clean ore for Q4 shipment to a smelter at an index minus $20/dmt, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold approximately 2,000 mt of clean ore in containers for August-September shipment to a smelter at an index minus $18-19/dmt, with a container premium in single digits, QP: M+1/M+5. In terms of mine tenders, regarding the previously offered Red Chris by Newnomont, market rumors suggest that the transaction price for 20,000 mt for trader-side shipments in September 2026 and Q4 was around -$225/dmt, while the 2027 20,000 mt transaction price was in the range of -$220/dmt to -$200/dmt. For a large mine's tender of South American clean ore, the trader-side transaction price was -$230/dmt for 10,000 mt, QP: M+1/M+4, with September shipment; the smelter-side transaction price was -$158/dmt for 10,000 mt, QP: M+1/M+4, with September shipment. For the OT mine tender, trader-side prices were -$230/dmt for September-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+4 (buyer's option), and -$225/dmt for November-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+4 (buyer's option); smelter-side prices were -$160/dmt for September-December shipment, QP: M+1/M+3 (buyer's option). In addition, according to market sources, KAZ is conducting tenders for Aktogay and Bozshakol copper concentrates, with results yet to be announced. Overall, spot transactions this week were still dominated by the index-minus model, but the pace of further widening of discounts slowed down compared with earlier. The downward momentum in trader-side tender prices also slowed noticeably; however, smelter-side transaction prices continued to decline, with procurement conditions worsening and raw material procurement pressure intensifying.

On July 23, Freeport-McMoRan disclosed during its Q2 earnings call that the resumption of production at the underground Block Cave project at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is progressing as expected. Currently, the ramp-up of production blocks 2 and 3 is advancing in accordance with the plan set in April. Previously, affected by a mud rush incident at the underground mine in September 2025, Grasberg partially suspended production. The company subsequently initiated cleaning, repair, and phased production resumption work. According to Freeport, Grasberg Block Cave completed repairs in Q1 2026, began production ramp-up in March, and reached planned operating levels in Q2. Currently, the company expects that Grasberg’s capacity will recover to about 65% in H2 2026, further increase to about 80% by mid-2027, and it plans to approach full operation by the end of 2027.

Recently, heavy rainfall and high-altitude snowfall hit central Chile and the Atacama region, prompting multiple copper mines to initiate winter emergency measures. Antofagasta Minerals’ Los Pelambres temporarily restricted access to the mine site and proactively reduced non-critical operations; no full suspension has been reported so far. Codelco’s Andina suspended surface operations, while El Teniente temporarily halted open-pit ore transport due to snow accumulation on slopes. Among these, Caserones was the most significantly affected. Lundin Mining stated that the mine had been shut down since July 18 due to heavy snow, limited road access, and an on-site power outage, and was currently relying on backup generators to maintain critical activities, with production expected to resume after power restoration and improved access conditions. As of July 24, the company had not yet issued a resumption notice, but Lundin Mining maintained its full-year production guidance. Overall, this disruption was mainly concentrated in central Chile and some high-altitude mining areas, while the major copper mines in the far north largely maintained operations, and no widespread nationwide shutdowns had occurred.

On July 24, SMM copper concentrate inventories at eleven ports stood at 661,500 mt in physical content, up 13,300 mt in physical content from July 17. The main increases came from Yantai Port and Qingdao Port, up 32,100 mt and 20,000 mt WoW, respectively; the main decreases were from Qinzhou Port and Huludao Port, down 18,000 mt and 7,000 mt WoW, respectively.