Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,892/mt, swung wildly during Asian trading hours, touched a high of $1,910/mt entering European hours, before giving back all gains late in the session due to increased bearish positions, falling to a low of $1,886/mt, and ultimately settled at $1,887/mt, down 0.32%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened high at 15,910 yuan/mt, then drifted lower on long liquidation, hitting a low of 15,755 yuan/mt late in the session before settling at 15,765 yuan/mt, down 0.88%.
On the macro front:
The US imposed tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies to replace the expiring global import tariffs. The US Treasury: Despite narrowing US-Japan interest rate differentials, yen weakness persisted, and excessive yen volatility was unwelcome. The ECB left rates unchanged as expected but kept the door open for a September rate hike.
The People's Bank of China: On July 24, it will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year tenor. MOFCOM: China and the US are soliciting opinions on tariff reduction arrangements and will push for implementation as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China consistently opposes the politicization and weaponization of technology, economic, and trade issues. Shanghai: Promote continuous deepening of reforms on the STAR Market and expand the application scope of the fifth set of listing standards on the STAR Market. Changxin Technology: to list on the STAR Market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27.
Spot fundamentals:
SHFE lead stopped falling and rebounded, boosting suppliers' willingness to sell. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were limited, while primary lead smelters had ample EXW cargoes and offered mostly at discounts. Quotations from mainstream production areas were at discounts of 50-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. In the secondary lead sector, most smelters were in reduced or suspended production, leaving limited circulating supply. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, EXW, forming an inverted price structure versus primary lead. Downstream enterprises, making just-in-time procurement, favored primary lead. Warrant cargoes traded moderately, while EXW cargoes saw relatively improved transactions.
Inventory: On July 23, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 449,325 mt. As of July 23, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 62,400 mt, down 9,400 mt from July 16 and down 1,400 mt from July 20.
Lead price forecast for today:
As late July arrives, the July long-term contract for lead ingot is about to expire. Medium- to large-sized downstream enterprises are waiting for the new monthly long-term contract, reducing their procurement enthusiasm for lead ingot. Meanwhile, some downstream enterprises plan to suspend operations for a break due to high temperatures, further dampening lead ingot procurement demand. Next week, primary lead enterprises in central China are about to enter maintenance, while new secondary lead capacity in east China will ramp up, leaving mixed supply-side factors. If lead consumption remains sluggish, destocking of lead ingot social inventory will be difficult to sustain; subsequently, the possibility of renewed inventory buildup cannot be ruled out, which could weigh on the lead price trend.
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![Bears Added Positions, Lead Prices Fell Under Pressure [SMM Lead Morning Update]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/yqTpQ20251217171721.jpeg)
