Strong US employment data lifted the dollar, copper prices came under pressure, and LME copper fell nearly 1.7% [SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

Friday, July 24, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,740/mt, touched a high of $13,764/mt shortly after opening, then the price center fluctuated downward, dipping to $13,560/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at $13,566/mt, down 1.74%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 247,000 lots, up 1,022 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting increased bearish positioning. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,100 yuan/mt, tested a high of 105,290 yuan/mt shortly after opening, then its price center shifted straight down to a low of 104,310 yuan/mt, and subsequently moved sideways before closing at 104,530 yuan/mt, down 1.4%. Trading volume was 67,600 lots, and open interest was 212,000 lots, down 12,500 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bullish positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) According to a Reuters report cited by Mining.com, Vale of Brazil announced on Tuesday that its Q2 iron ore production hit a new high for the same period, up 0.8% YoY, beating analyst expectations. Vale, one of the world's top iron ore miners, reported Q2 (April-June) iron ore production of 84.3 million mt, above the Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimate of 82.2 million mt. The miner said the Q2 growth was mainly driven by record production at the S11D mine, as well as the Capanema and VGR1 projects, all of which are located in Brazil.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of July 23, the SHFE copper 2608 contract showed a consolidation trend after an initial decline, with the overall price center edging slightly higher. It opened at 106,100 yuan/mt, then fell quickly to a low of 105,920 yuan/mt, before rebounding rapidly to 106,270 yuan/mt, mainly trading between 106,070 yuan/mt and 106,250 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 106,300 yuan/mt and closing at 106,170 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between front-month and next-month contracts was between 90 yuan/mt and 120 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 front-month contract was between a loss of 650 yuan/mt and a loss of 600 yuan/mt. Outlook for today: Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to persist, but the overall center may edge slightly lower. During the day, some suppliers proactively cut prices to offload cargoes, driving market quotes down rapidly. Although some suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm after low-priced deals were concluded, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 68,300 mt, up 2,200 mt from Monday, and Jiangsu social inventory at 22,000 mt, up 2,400 mt from Monday, marking the first slight inventory buildup in over three weeks. The marginal factor of low inventory that previously supported higher premiums is weakening, and combined with the fact that downstream procurement remains on a just-in-time basis, spot premiums are expected to face further downward pressure today. However, suppliers holding prices firm may limit the decline.
(2) Guangdong: On July 23, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, same as the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, same as the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, same as the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 106,300 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper average price was 106,210 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices stayed high, downstream restocking willingness was low, and spot premiums were unchanged from July 22.
(3) Imported copper: On July 23, the average warrant price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $113/mt (price range: $108-118/mt); the average B/L price fell $4/mt from the previous trading day to $108/mt (price range: $105-111/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $76/mt (price range: $72-80/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to late August.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 23, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 106,170 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums averaged 330 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On July 23, copper scrap prices fell 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.66, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 2.29. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stood at 4,545 yuan/mt, up 101 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,860 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper scrap suppliers maintained their high-price selling stance from July 22, but secondary copper rod enterprises had ample raw materials and mounting fear of high prices, resulting in mediocre spot transactions for copper scrap during the day.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump said he is “seriously considering” resuming large-scale combat operations against Iran and is close to a decision, warning that Iran will be held accountable if the Houthis attack ships again. On the trade front, the US imposed tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economies to replace the soon-to-expire global import tariffs. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, below the expected 212,000, showing continued resilience in the labor market. Driven by escalating concerns over the Middle East conflict, the implementation of tariff policies, and strong employment data, the US dollar index rose, sending copper prices lower under pressure. On the fundamentals side, increased supply of circulating cargoes and slight inventory buildup in Shanghai and Jiangsu weakened the marginal support from low inventories. On the demand side, the off-season and high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases, leaving overall demand sluggish. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by the client are unrelated to SMM]