【SMM Analysis】Domestic Ternary Cathode Shipments May Decline in July

This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to move lower. On the raw material front, nickel sulfate prices traded at low levels with fluctuations, cobalt sulfate offers continued to decline, manganese sulfate prices held steady, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw relatively notable declines due to capital market volatility.

In terms of transaction sentiment, some battery cell manufacturers remained bearish amid significant volatility in raw material prices. With sufficient inventory levels, downstream battery cell manufacturers largely adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach and slowed their pace of offtake, leading to subdued trading activity this week.

On the payable front, battery cell manufacturers showed limited acceptance of upward payable adjustments amid lackluster demand growth. Meanwhile, with the upcoming reinstatement of the lithium battery consumption tax, battery cell manufacturers may shift part of their cost pressures upstream, further complicating any upward payable adjustments.

On the demand side, ternary battery cell manufacturers in the EV market generally adopt M-1 month pricing for settlements. Given the notable decline in raw material prices in July, battery cell manufacturers have shown strong wait-and-see sentiment. Actual offtake volumes this month are expected to be lower than previously anticipated, suggesting that domestic ternary cathode shipments in July may decline. In the consumer market, while the expected reinstatement of the consumption tax exists, its pull-forward effect on orders has been relatively limited, with demand also weighed down by falling raw material prices.