Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,872.5/mt, drifting lower to $1,863/mt during Asian trading hours. Entering the European session, bears reduced positions, and LME lead rose to an intraday high of $1,898.5/mt before finally settling at $1,893/mt, up 1.34%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,790 yuan/mt, then consolidated around the 15,815 yuan/mt level, with a session high of 15,850 yuan/mt and a low of 15,770 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 15,820 yuan/mt, up 0.6%.
On the macro front:
An Iranian official said Trump's claims that Tehran requested negotiations were "completely baseless." US Secretary of State Rubio expressed willingness to reach a diplomatic solution with Iran but noted Iran lacks sincerity. Iran's military stated that if the US acts on its threats, Iran will cut off all oil flows in the Gulf region and strike infrastructure there. Israeli media reported that the US has notified Israel of plans to escalate strikes against Iran in the coming days. Trump said he expects a US federal government "shutdown" in September.
China's Ministry of Finance reported that securities transaction stamp duty revenue jumped 97.3% YoY in H1. Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Center stated it has invested a cumulative total of nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds in the stock market so far.
Spot fundamentals:
SHFE lead consolidated on a weak note with its center moving lower. Supplier quotes diverged more widely, with some holding prices firm while others widened discounts to sell. For primary lead smelters, EXW cargo quotes saw wider discounts, with mainstream production area quotes at discounts of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and some as low as 100-80 yuan/mt. In secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices with limited quotes. Some secondary refined lead was quoted near parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, while a few regions had discounted cargoes. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and some planned output cuts due to weak orders and high temperatures, leading to lackluster spot market transactions.
Inventory: On July 22, LME lead inventory fell 425 mt to 449,325 mt. As of July 20, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions decreased by 8,000 mt WoW from July 16.
Lead price outlook today:
Recently, some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, while new and expanded capacity at secondary lead smelters is coming online. Weak lead consumption combined with supply pressure widened spot discounts. Meanwhile, high overseas inventory weighed on the upside of lead prices, keeping prices under pressure in the short term. The market has entered a game-theory phase, with lead prices mainly consolidating on a weak note.
Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
![Bullish and bearish factors intertwine, and the lead futures trend maintains a fluctuating trend [SMM Lead Morning News]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/mIbTL20251217171721.jpg)
