Cell Inventory Pulls Back Slightly, EVA Resin Price Rally Continues [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, July 23:

Solar Cell

Prices

Transaction ranges for Topcon cells of all sizes held steady from the previous day. 183-size held at 0.265-0.27 yuan/W; 210R at 0.258-0.265 yuan/W; 210N mainstream transactions approached 0.265 yuan/W. The cost side surged significantly, providing phased support for futures, and producers' willingness to actively cut prices and move goods noticeably subsided. However, the core fundamentals of high industry inventory and weak downstream module procurement demand have not reversed. Current cost support can only curb further price declines, with insufficient momentum to push up quotations. In the short term, the market has entered a consolidation and wait-and-see phase.

Production

Some producers have already implemented production cuts, but offset by integrated supporting capacity, overall industry output in July still exceeded that in June, and total industry supply has not contracted significantly yet.

Inventory

This week, total industry inventory pulled back slightly WoW. Destocking of the 183-size achieved notable results, while inventories of other sizes remained at high levels. The overall industry destocking pressure has not been substantially alleviated.

Module

Prices

This week, domestic module prices edged down, but the decline has started to narrow. Recently, low-price quotations from domestic top-tier players have begun to decrease, and the previous behavior of low-price order grabbing has also lessened. Signs of holding prices firm have emerged periodically, and it is expected that prices will see bargaining expectations going forward. On the centralized side, recent project tenders have recovered somewhat, and delivery before year-end has also started, with moderate demand. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.715 yuan/W, 0.7235 yuan/W, and 0.729 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.708 yuan/W, 0.718 yuan/W, and 0.711 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Recently, domestic module plants' operating rates have remained largely stable, with enterprises mainly producing based on demand. July overall production is expected to increase compared to June by approximately 2 GW.

Inventory

This week, domestic module inventory remained largely stable. Downstream distributed projects' recent procurement intensity slightly weakened, and distributors' purchasing volume declined.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/POE PV-Grade Materials:

Currently, the mainstream spot transaction range for PV-grade EVA resin in China is 9,800-9,900 yuan/mt, with the market continuing its upward trend. In July, affected by maintenance shutdowns of some units and adjustments to petrochemical plants' PV-grade EVA production schedules, the effective supply of PV-grade EVA continued to shrink. Combined with downstream film factories' just-in-time purchases, market spot cargoes tightened, and the tight supply-demand balance pushed EVA resin prices steadily higher. No other petrochemical plants are expected to switch to large-scale PV-grade EVA production and bring significant growth within the month, and the upward trend of PV-grade EVA prices is likely to continue in the short term.

PV Film:

Currently, the price of 420 g/m² transparent EVA film is 5.04-5.1 yuan/m², and the price of 380 g/m² EPE film is 5.13-5.19 yuan/m². Upstream EVA resin prices have been rising steadily, continuously driving up film production costs. This week, some film factories slightly raised their negotiated case-by-case prices, but a unified industry price adjustment signal has not yet formed, and downstream players showed weak willingness to accept the increased prices. At this stage, the EVA resin price rally continues, and it is expected that at the month-end new round of monthly price negotiations, film prices may edge up slightly.

Production

Currently, PV-grade EVA production has slightly decreased due to a brief shutdown of a certain unit. Film factories' July production schedule is up approximately 6%-7% MoM from June.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical plants continue destocking, and traders' spot inventories are tight. Film factory inventory pressure is generally manageable.

PV Glass:

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The price of 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 15.0-16.0 yuan/m², and glass prices remained stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The price of 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 16.0-17.0 yuan/m², and glass prices remained stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The price of 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 8.5-9.5 yuan/m². This week, glass prices remained stable, but the quotation center moved higher. Enterprises' resistance to losses intensified, and it is expected that quotations will be raised at month-end.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The price of 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 9.5-10.5 yuan/m², and glass prices remained stable.

Production

This week, another furnace in China entered cold repair, involving a capacity of 2,400 mt/day, and the industry's production cut pace remained fast.

Inventory

In recent days, days of inventories maintained a downward trend. Under the impact of narrowing supply, module enterprises' subsequent purchase volume is expected to rise, and some module enterprises have already started to moderately purchase and stockpile.