[SMM Analysis] 2026 H2, HRC-Rebar Price Spread May Fluctuate Between 150-250 Yuan

• In H1 2026, the HRC-rebar price spread was slightly higher than in the same period of 2025.

From the start of 2026 to now, the most-traded HRC-rebar spread has fluctuated between 130-230 yuan, averaging 187 yuan, higher than the 128-yuan average in the same period of 2025.

Figure 1: SHFE Most-Traded HRC-Rebar Spread Trend

This year, the HRC-rebar spread has been slightly above the same period last year, with the main reason still lying in supply-demand fundamentals. From 2025 to 2026, the property sector continued to decline, keeping rebar supply and demand at low levels, while benefiting from resilient domestic manufacturing demand and active export diversion of sheets & plates, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC has been relatively less severe than for rebar against the backdrop of sluggish overall steel demand in China.

• In H2 2026, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is limited.

Going forward, starting from late August, the off-season impact will gradually fade, demand will return to peak season, and both rebar-related property & infrastructure sectors and HRC-related manufacturing sectors are expected to see improved demand. HRC and rebar prices are expected to rebound slightly in H2, but given the still prominent overall steel supply-demand imbalance in China, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is relatively limited, with fluctuations likely in the 180-230 yuan range.

Approaching year-end, as temperatures drop in many regions, the pace of outdoor construction continues to slow, while some manufacturing sectors still have expectations of a year-end demand sprint; the HRC-rebar spread may then widen slightly, entering a fluctuation range of 200-250 yuan.