7.22 SMM Alumina Morning Comment
Futures: The most-traded alumina 2609 contract showed a retreat after rapid rise overnight, opening at 2,733 yuan/mt, briefly rising to 2,752 yuan/mt before consolidating and pulling back to a low of 2,722 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 2,729 yuan/mt, down 23 yuan/mt from the session high. The daily candlestick formed a small bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Trading volume decreased by 6,948 lots from the previous trading day to 115,000 lots, with volume remaining low and market activity subdued. Open interest decreased by 383 lots to 307,000 lots, as capital continued to flow out slightly and both bulls and bears lacked the willingness to enter continuously. Technically, the closing price of 2,729 yuan/mt remained above the MA5 (2,721.6), MA10 (2,706.2), and MA20 (2,706.95), with the short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment and the short-term center edging higher. However, after peaking at 2,752 yuan/mt during the day, it was clearly blocked and pulled back, with this level forming double resistance with the MA40 (2,740.15), validating the downward pressure from the medium-term moving average. Overall, the futures currently show a consolidation pattern characterized by support from short-term moving averages, notable pressure from the medium-term moving average, and insufficient volume, leaving the near-term direction unclear. Attention should focus on whether the resistance around the MA40 (2,740.15) can be effectively broken, and whether volume can recover sufficiently. If volume remains low and prices cannot reclaim 2,750 yuan/mt, prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note within the 2,720–2,750 yuan/mt range, with support at the MA5 (2,721.6) and the 2,700 round figure.
Ore side: As of July 21, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was at $70.36/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $70.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF average price was $78/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $78.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Overall, on the domestic ore front, mining operations in Shanxi, Henan, and other areas are gradually resuming, while alumina refineries continue to push for lower prices, leaving domestic ore prices largely in the doldrums. Imported ore side, ocean freight rates stayed high, coupled with ongoing uncertainty over Guinea’s policies, providing some support to ore prices. However, raw material inventory at domestic alumina refineries remained high, purchasing interest was limited, and market price negotiations persisted. In the short term, imported ore prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention still needs to be paid to Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and changes in Australia-China ocean freight rates.
Spot Prices: As of July 21, 2026, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 2,719.92 yuan/mt, down 4.16 yuan/mt; the SMM Shandong Alumina Index stood at 2,725.50 yuan/mt, down 4.21 yuan/mt; the SMM Henan Alumina Index stood at 2,752.16 yuan/mt, down 6.75 yuan/mt; the SMM Shanxi Alumina Index stood at 2,757.36 yuan/mt, down 8.04 yuan/mt; the SMM Guizhou Alumina Index stood at 2,731.28 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt; and the SMM Guangxi Alumina Index stood at 2,632.27 yuan/mt, down 1.62 yuan/mt.
Basis Daily: According to SMM data, on July 21, the SMM Alumina Index was at a discount of 7.08 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price as of 11:30.
Warrant Daily: On July 21, total registered alumina warrants stood at 222,300 mt, down 903 mt from the previous trading day. By region, Shandong registered warrants were 16,176 mt, down 1,800 mt; Henan registered warrants were 1,802 mt, unchanged; Guangxi registered warrants were 12,941 mt, unchanged; Gansu registered warrants were 13,472 mt, down 5,721 mt; and Xinjiang registered warrants were 176,900 mt, up 897 mt.
Markets Outside China: As of July 21, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $335/mt; the ocean freight rate was $32.35/mt; and the USD/CNY offered exchange rate was 6.78. Based on these, the equivalent selling price of overseas alumina at major Chinese ports was approximately 2,897.78 yuan/mt, a premium of 177.86 yuan/mt against the SMM Alumina Index that day.
Summary: Currently, total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with overall changes limited. In terms of structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined somewhat, mainly because spot prices remain at relatively high levels, prompting downstream aluminum smelters to slow their procurement of high-priced raw materials and rely more on drawing down existing in-factory inventory. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries increased slightly, but production cuts due to maintenance at some enterprises in Shanxi and new capacity releases in south China largely offset each other, resulting in limited overall growth. At ports, affected by the arrival of new vessels, inventories have rebounded somewhat; regarding warrant inventory, affected by invoicing issues and the narrowing spread between futures and spot prices, the willingness to ship to delivery warehouse has weakened, and inventories have continued to decline; in-transit and station inventories have accumulated somewhat, mainly due to earlier warrants maturing and being released as spot, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, which has increased supply in the circulation link. It is expected that in the short term, the overall operating pattern of the alumina market will not change much. Although some enterprises using domestic ore and those with tight ore supply have maintenance plans, the impact on monthly production is limited, and inventory levels are likely to remain at current states. On the price side, as the regional spot mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center may pull back slightly, and the subsequent trend is likely to remain under pressure.
[All other data beyond publicly available information are derived based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
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