LME copper rose nearly 2%, SHFE copper rose over 1.6%, and tight supply supported copper prices' continued strength [SMM Copper Morning Briefing]

July 22, 2026, Wednesday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,857/mt, drifted lower early in the session to touch a low of $13,781.5/mt, then the center of copper prices shifted straight up to test $13,934/mt, finally closing at $13,905.5/mt, up 1.91%. Trading volume reached 32,700 lots, and open interest reached 244,000 lots, an increase of 344 lots from the previous trading day, driven by long-position building. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 106,130 yuan/mt, fell early in the session to 105,830 yuan/mt, then the center of copper prices rose all the way to touch a high of 106,760 yuan/mt near the session close, finally closing at 106,600 yuan/mt, up 1.69%. Trading volume reached 55,000 lots, and open interest reached 225,000 lots, an increase of 9,557 lots from the previous trading day, driven by long-position building.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) According to , The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 16th that the US has surpassed Europe in investment in critical minerals, with the latter struggling to break free from dependency. WSJ cited an analysis from the French Institute of International Relations that over the past five years, the US has invested approximately $46 billion in critical raw material projects through grants, loans, and tax incentives, eight times the amount of the EU. The US is also negotiating priority development of mineral resources in countries such as the DRC and Ukraine, while supporting overseas projects through financing programs.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On July 21, the morning session of the SHFE copper 2608 contract saw sideways consolidation followed by a sustained rise. It opened at 104,730 yuan/mt, after the open prices largely moved within 104,650-104,840 yuan/mt, then quickly rose to 104,950 yuan/mt, subsequently mainly traded between 104,850-105,030 yuan/mt, and the closing price was 104,930 yuan/mt. The inter-month backwardation spread was between 130-170 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract for the current month was between a loss of 430 yuan/mt and 370 yuan/mt. Today, influenced by persistently low social inventory in Shanghai, available spot copper cathode in the market remains tight, providing strong support for spot premiums. Intraday, copper prices edged up, the backwardation structure narrowed to 140-170 yuan/mt, and suppliers held prices firm with strong sentiment to hold back from selling. During the day, offers for standard-quality copper were at premiums of 450-480 yuan/mt, up about 40 yuan/mt from yesterday. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance for supplies at premiums near 450 yuan/mt, procurement remained mainly need-based, with most negotiations bringing premiums down to around 420 yuan/mt; but traders continued to trade on the expectation of tight available supplies, supply circulation was relatively active, and procurement interest remained at a high level. Overall, against the backdrop of the continued phase of tight available supplies, Shanghai spot copper prices are expected to maintain premiums against the 2608 contract today, with the overall center likely continuing to edge up.
(2) Guangdong: On July 21, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,865 yuan/mt, up 685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,760 yuan/mt, up 685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices rebounded, downstream restocking enthusiasm declined, and spot trades were weaker than on July 20.
(3) Imported copper: On July 21, the average warrant price rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $109/mt (price range $106-112/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $108/mt (price range $106-110/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $10/mt from the previous trading day to $74/mt (price range $68-80/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to mid-to-late August.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 21, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,930 yuan/mt, up 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 470 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On July 21, copper scrap prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index rose to 2.53, while the purchase sentiment index remained at 2.29. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,745 yuan/mt, up 527 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,590 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices continued yesterday's upward momentum, the price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap continued to widen. Although copper scrap suppliers were active in shipments, secondary copper rod enterprises currently have relatively ample raw material inventories, and their purchase willingness on the day was flat with July 20.
Price: On the macro front, Trump said he has no intention of meeting with Iran and will fiercely attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and warned the Houthis. Iran has struck a US military base in Bahrain and threatened to attack all US targets in the region. Israeli media reported that a ceasefire proposal was put forward by Iran, but the Israeli Finance Minister said Israel has no intention of participating in the war. On the trade front, with the 10% temporary tariff expiring soon, the US has indicated that new tariffs will be quickly filled in, likely coming into effect within this week. Tariff expectations, combined with continued destocking and tight supply, pushed copper prices higher. On the fundamentals side, the supply of available cargoes remained tight, low inventory supported suppliers in holding prices firm, keeping the overall tight pattern. The demand side was constrained by the consumption off-season, with downstream procurement weak and sluggish. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for their own independent judgment. Any decision made by the client is unrelated to SMM.]