SMM Nickel: High-Grade NPI Market Sees Sentiment Gains, Price Tug-of-War Continues

Indonesia Targets Full Implementation of Single-Gate Export System by 1 September Indonesia expects to fully implement its single-gate export policy for strategic commodities by 1 September 2026, according to President Prabowo Subianto. The policy has been under a transition phase since 1 June 2026, with PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) coordinating preparations for the nationwide rollout. "We expect the full implementation of the single-gate export policy for strategic commodities by 1 September 2026," Prabowo said. Prabowo said DSI was established to strengthen oversight of strategic commodity exports, improve transparency, and better monitor export volumes and foreign exchange earnings.The government said the framework aims to improve export governance, strengthen oversight, and curb practices such as under-invoicing and transfer pricing. During the transition period, exporters will continue operating under the existing system while DSI gradually assumes a larger coordinating role.

[7.21 Morning Briefing] US media reports: US-Iran conflict intensifies, the Pentagon is accelerating the deployment of F-16 and F-35 fighter jets to the Middle East. Advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader: If US forces continue operations, Iran may shift to a full-scale offensive. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged in early trading then pulled back slightly, and as of the morning close, it reported 130,720 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. As the US-Iran conflict escalates, shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have strengthened sulfur cost support. However, refined nickel inventories remain difficult to reduce. Both domestic and international inventories are still at high levels, and the destocking speed is slow. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within the range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

The EU Commission's latest ETS reform proposal (COM(2026) 616), presented as a competitiveness measure, adds further layers of funds, investment conditions, and reporting obligations on top of already complex ETS and CBAM rules without meaningful simplification. Free allocation for CBAM sectors is extended to 2038, while historic certificate surpluses accumulated by the steel industry remain entirely untouched — allowing European producers to meet current obligations with previously free-allocated certificates while importers must provide upfront CBAM capital. SMEs appear in funding programs but receive no exemptions or reserved quotas. The case of Saarstahl illustrates the asymmetry: the company benefits simultaneously from historic ETS surpluses, extended free allocation, decarbonisation subsidies, CBAM border protection, and steel tariffs, with over half of its EUR 4.6 billion hydrogen investment publicly funded. Meanwhile, Germany's 2026 industrial electricity price of around 16.7 cents/kWh has returned to 2014 levels, undermining the steel industry's persistent claims that energy costs are the sector's primary burden.