Copper Billet Imports in June Keep Rising Both YoY and MoM, High Import Price Pressure Persists [SMM Analysis]

       The latest customs data show that in June 2026, China's imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods stood at 3,156.8 mt in physical content, up 48.99% YoY and up 14.11% MoM. Cumulative imports for January-June 2026 reached 14,600 mt in physical content, with the cumulative YoY growth rate turning from negative in the first five months to positive at 6.56%. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190). From April to June, the downstream sector in China maintained a regular restocking pace, overseas producer deliveries were stable, and the concentrated arrival of some orders in June drove a second consecutive month of MoM recovery in monthly imports, with the YoY growth rate for the month significantly strengthening, shifting H1 total imports from weak to strong. However, overall consumption from end-users in real estate, home appliances, and hardware did not see concentrated releases, with the market only experiencing periodic replenishment, and sustained large-scale procurement has yet to emerge.

       In terms of import source structure, South Korea remained China's largest source of brass billet imports. In June, brass billet imports from South Korea were 1,249.49 mt, up 11.77% MoM and surging 69.46% YoY, accounting for 39.58% of total monthly imports. Japanranked second, with June imports of 509.22 mt, up 15.76% MoM and up 12.05% YoY, accounting for 16.13%. Imports from the two major traditional core suppliers, Japan and South Korea, both rose MoM, with their combined supply share exceeding 50%, solidifying the traditional East Asian supply landscape. Of particular note, supply growth from Thailand surged, making it the third-largest import source. In June, brass billet imports from Thailandtotaled 444.6 mt, up 126.46% MoM and skyrocketing 2,119.78% YoY, accounting for 14.08% for the month. Continuous capacity release in Southeast Asia, improved cross-border logistics channels, and some enterprises diversifying procurement and broadening supply channels drove a leapfrog increase in Thailand's brass billet imports to China, further highlighting the diversification of import sources.

       Import value growth also accelerated, further widening the volume-value divergence pattern and continuously highlighting upstream cost pressures. In June, the import value of brass billet was $30.0249 million, up 12.23% MoM and up 85.95% YoY. Cumulative import value for January-June 2026 reached $135.7328 million, up 33.34% YoY. A data comparison clearly shows that while H1 imports rose only 6.56% YoY, the cumulative import value surged by 33.34%, with the growth gap between volume and value continuing to widen. The core driving logic remains the consolidation of international copper raw material prices at highs, with overseas brass billet production and processing costs continuously rising. This cost pressure is transmitted downstream to the import trade side, directly pushing up import transaction unit prices. Even as import physical volumes recover steadily, high-priced raw materials still drive up overall import values.

        The core contradiction of the current brass billet market—“high costs, weak demand, and pessimistic expectations”—has not undergone a substantial reversal. On one hand, international copper prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, constantly elevating overseas production costs for brass billet and domestic import procurement costs, thereby continuously squeezing profit margins of domestic copper processing enterprises. Enterprises’ willingness to make large-scale import purchases remains overall cautious. On the other hand, traditional downstream terminals such as real estate, home appliances, and hardware and plumbing are recovering at a slow pace. Downstream finished product orders are generally mediocre, spot market trading sentiment is sluggish, and enterprises primarily restock in small quantities on demand, lacking momentum for proactive substantial restocking. Combining June import performance with downstream terminal fundamentals, SMM expects the brass billet import market in Q3 to remain under pressure.