June Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations; Will July Exports Increase? [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 20 News:

According to the latest customs data, June 2026 imports of refined zinc were 5,500 mt, up 500 mt or 9.22% MoM and down 84.85% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to June were 59,600 mt, down 68.96% YoY. June exports of refined zinc were 2,300 mt, down 40.3% MoM and up 24.49% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June were 20,800 mt, up 67.8% YoY, resulting in net imports of 3,100 mt in June and cumulative net imports of 38,700 mt from January to May.

By country, the top three import sources in June were Kazakhstan (3,400 mt, 61.93%), Australia (1,400 mt, 25.86%), and South Korea (300 mt, 5.39%); the top three export destinations in June were Vietnam (1,200 mt, 50.46%), Thailand (900 mt, 38.03%), and Singapore (100 mt, 4.33%). The better-than-expected increase in June refined zinc imports was mainly due to an increase in Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas for Kazakhstani zinc, as the import window remained closed, Ordinary Trade imports of refined zinc remained at a low level, accounting for only 6.3% of imports. Export side, in terms of trading partners, the main export destinations in June were Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore, with overall exports accounting for over 92%. From the perspective of export profits, although the spot export window to Southeast Asia occasionally opened in June, the window was relatively small, and spot sales in Southeast Asia weakened MoM, with spot sales also not smooth, the overall export volume edged down.

In July, with LME outperforming SHFE, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio declined, and the opening of the spot export window for refined zinc to Southeast Asia increased. However, the ship-to-delivery-warehouse window to Southeast Asia has not yet fully opened, and market exports remain primarily spot, with exports expected to increase. On the import side, as the window remained closed, refined zinc imports are expected to remain primarily from bonded-area outflows, with limited growth overall.

Data source statement: All data except public information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM internal database models, processed by SMM, for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice.