SMM, July 20:
Metals market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE tin rose 1.65%. SHFE copper edged up 0.29%, while SHFE aluminum fell 0.32%. SHFE lead edged up, while SHFE zinc fell 0.63%. SHFE nickel fell 0.13%.
In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.3%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.23%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.69%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.72%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.26%.
Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.33%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil (HRC) fell 0.45% and 0.54%, respectively. Stainless steel fell 0.27%. Coke and coking coal: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.2%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.99%.
Overseas base metals market, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 0.16%, and LME lead fell 0.21%. LME zinc and LME tin both rose 0.31%. LME nickel rose 0.21%.
Precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.2%, and COMEX silver rose 1.85%. Domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 0.7%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.47%.
Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.33%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.84%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight (European route) contract rose 6.4% to 2,809 points.
As of 11:45 on July 20, midday market overview for some futures:
Spot Prices and Fundamentals
Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 170 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,180 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,075 yuan/mt, up 340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventories saw a significant decline after the weekend, mainly driven by a sharp increase in warehouse withdrawals...
Macro Front
Domestic front:
[MIIT: Continuously Implement the New Round of Work Plans for Stable Growth in Sectors Such as Machinery and Automobiles, While Expanding High-Quality Supply and Effective Demand Across the Board] The State Council Information Office held a press conference to present the industrial and information technology development situation in H1 2026. Wang Weiming, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that in H1, the export delivery value of the equipment industry rose 18.2% YoY, contributing nearly 50% to the growth of industrial exports. Next, MIIT will make every effort to promote the transformation and upgrading of the equipment industry.
[MIIT: From January to May, new shipbuilding orders accounted for 81.2% of the global total, firmly ranking first in global market share] At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Wang Weiming, Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in the ship and offshore engineering equipment sector, from January to May, China’s new shipbuilding orders accounted for 81.2% of the global total, firmly ranking first in global market share.
[MIIT: To issue guidelines for building a systematic computing power standards framework, and promote standards such as market-based pricing for computing power] The State Council Information Office held a press conference to brief on industrial and information technology development in 2026 H1. Xie Cun, spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and Director-General of the Information and Communications Development Department, said that next, MIIT will continue to follow a systematic work approach focused on points, chains, networks, surfaces, and systems, optimize the deployment of computing power infrastructure resources, build interconnected and interoperable computing power periods, and improve the efficiency of computing power resource utilization. In terms of strengthening efforts at the “point” level, it will optimize the supply-side deployment of computing power resources, coordinate factors such as industrial development and energy supply, promote the development of intelligent computing clusters and coordinated development between computing power and electricity, create a tiered computing power layout, and strengthen overall monitoring of computing power. In addition, it will issue guidelines for building a systematic computing power standards framework, and promote standards such as evaluation of computing power service capabilities and market-based pricing for computing power.
[Unchanged for the 14th consecutive month! July LPR quotes released: 3.5% for 5-year and above, 3% for 1-year]China’s July Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released on July 20, with both the 1-year and 5-year and above LPR left unchanged. An announcement authorized by the PBOC and released by the National Interbank Funding Center showed that the LPR on July 20, 2026 was: 3.0% for the 1-year LPR and 3.5% for the 5-year and above LPR. The above LPRs are valid until the next LPR release. The 7-day reverse repo rate, the main policy rate, has remained unchanged for 14 consecutive months since it was cut in May 2025; therefore, the pricing basis for this month’s LPR quotes did not change. The last LPR adjustment was in May 2025, when both the 1-year and 5-year and above LPR were lowered by 10 basis points.
[PBOC net injected 174.5 billion yuan into the open market today] The PBOC conducted 398.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an operating rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous level. Reverse repos worth 224 billion yuan matured today.
US dollar:
As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 100.71. Oil prices have risen by over 20% this month, reigniting inflation concerns. Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that curbing inflation is the top priority. The market is now focused on the upcoming July PMI data this week to judge whether the resilience of the US economy is sufficient to support the Fed's interest rate hikes in September or October. (Wall Street View)
According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, with a 14.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike. The probability of no change in September is 38.5%, with a 53.5% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 7.9% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jinshi Data APP)
Data:
Today will see the release of Canada June CPI MoM, US June CB Leading Index MoM, China June year-to-date installed power generation capacity, China June year-to-date installed power generation capacity yearly rate, and more.
Crude Oil:
As of 11:45 am, oil prices on both exchanges extended gains from the previous trading day, with WTI up 2.24% and Brent up 2.41%. The US-Iran conflict escalated further over the weekend, pushing oil prices higher.
According to CCTV News reports, on July 19 local time, US Energy Secretary Wright stated that military operations against Iran will continue until President Trump achieves his military objectives.
According to CCTV News, Iranian sources said on the 19th that navigational traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, and the strait will remain closed as long as the US continues its provocative actions.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley pointed out that Europe faces a diesel supply crunch as a series of significant supply challenges coincide, with refining margins in the region hitting record highs while inventories continue to decline. “The current situation is indeed very tight,” analysts including Martin Ratz said in a July 19 report. “Our supply-demand model shows that European diesel inventories will fall to multi-year lows by year-end.” The analysts stated, “The true bottleneck in the oil system at the moment lies in refining, not crude oil,” noting that some African oil cargoes remain unsold and forward prices in certain parts of the market are trending bearish. “At the center of all this is the diesel market, particularly in Europe.” (Jinshi Data APP)
Spot Market Overview:
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![Low inventories, coupled with suppliers holding prices firm, push the center of Shanghai spot copper premiums to rise continuously [SMM Shanghai spot copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/OpmKJ20251217171712.jpg)
![Supply-Demand Pattern Tight, Overall Transactions Improve [SMM South China Spot Aluminum Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/SUuNM20251217171651.jpg)
![Base metals broadly rise, SHFE silver surges over 3%, lithium carbonate drops more than 4%, coking coal and coke and iron ore lead the decline [SMM midday comment]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/fNuSg20251217171735.jpg)
