US Fed engages in tug of war over rate policy tone, the most-traded SHFE tin contract moved sideways in the morning session [SMM Tin Morning Commentary]

Tin Midday Commentary, July 17, 2026

The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 408,780 yuan/mt, with its center drifting lower before stabilizing. The morning session closed at 406,870 yuan/mt, down 0.78%. The LME market consolidated on a subdued note in tandem, with three-month LME tin currently trading at $52,620/mt, down 0.72%.

Macro and Policy Front:

(1) Several core US Fed officials made intensive remarks, but policy stances showed clear divergence under a highly data-dependent approach. Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted that upside risks to inflation still outweigh the risks of labor market weakening. Given ongoing price pressures from AI-related investment, tariffs, and Middle East energy conflicts, she indicated readiness to take tightening action if there is no sustained sign of cooling inflation in the short term. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (FOMC voting member) held a more explicitly hawkish stance, stating that the marginal improvement in June inflation data is not enough and that one month of pullback is insufficient to ease the necessity for policy tightening; she remains in favor of moderately raising rates. In contrast, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s tone was relatively mild, viewing the current policy range as broadly appropriate and suggesting rates can be held steady for now, while also emphasizing that a reassessment would be needed if inflation fails to cool persistently.

(2) Middle East tensions and risks along key shipping lanes escalated again. Iran issued a stern warning that if US forces continue to strike its power and transportation infrastructure, it will take measures to block critical shipping routes. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen are coordinating contingency plans with Iran, ready to simultaneously control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if necessary. In response to the heightened geopolitical situation, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly called on both the US and Iran to exercise restraint and resume technical negotiations.

Spot Market: Spot market activity was mediocre this morning, with a relatively subdued trading atmosphere. Suppliers maintained active quoting, selling readily at prevailing prices. However, downstream enterprises and end-users broadly stayed cautious and watchful, mostly placing small orders on dips, with actual deals flowing mainly for essential spot orders.

In summary, the current fluctuations in tin prices remain tethered to macro liquidity sentiment. Divergent views within the US Fed on the future policy path, and the resulting lack of market consensus, have prevented the formation of a one-sided trend. On the fundamental side, China’s social inventory remains at a low level, providing some support to the price floor. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain guided by alternating bullish and bearish sentiment in the near term, consolidating within a range.