Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,851/mt, bearish news outside China had been fully priced in, bears gradually reduced positions, and throughout the day LME lead drifted higher, basically recouping all losses from the previous day, hitting a session high of $1,878.5/mt before finally settling at $1,869/mt, up 1%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,700 yuan/mt, domestic lead ingot inventory turned from increases to decreases, some bearish funds exited, and after opening SHFE lead rose sharply, moving above 15,800 yuan/mt and briefly attempting to approach 15,900 yuan/mt. It finally settled at 15,840 yuan/mt, up 1.57%; open interest was 119,000 lots, up 2,690 lots from the previous trading session.
On the macro front:
US forces conducted airstrikes on Iran for the fifth consecutive night, shipping through Hormuz dropped to one-tenth of pre-war levels, and the White House said Iran is still in talks with the US. US June retail sales rose 0.2% MoM, falling oil prices dragged down overall growth but core consumption remained solid. The US announced a 25% tariff on some Brazilian imports, and Brazil's president said the unilateral measures "make no sense."
:
Yesterday in the lead spot market, SHFE lead continued to consolidate on a subdued note, some suppliers sold out spot cargoes, market quotations decreased from yesterday, and some quotations were revised higher in terms of premiums. Also, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were in ample supply, and quotations from mainstream production areas were at discounts of 25-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In secondary lead, smelters' selling enthusiasm was moderate, and market quotations were chaotic. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 20 to premiums of 30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, and risk aversion sentiment eased slightly, but actual procurement remained limited.
Inventory side: As of July 16, LME lead inventory stood at 454,025 mt, down 2,550 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 64,245 mt, down 1,668 mt from the previous trading day. SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions reached 71,800 mt, up 5,300 mt from July 9, but down around 500 mt from July 13.
Today's lead price forecast:
Lead ingot inventories in and outside China turned from increases to decreases, significantly easing market risk aversion. Additionally, after the previous decline in lead prices, expectations for production cuts emerged in the secondary lead market, and downstream enterprises also engaged in dip-buying. Spot market trading activity improved, providing some support for lead prices. It is expected that in the short term, with bearish news exhausted, lead prices will rebound relatively.
Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
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