Platinum and Palladium Market Price Review and Expectations Brief Comment (July 16, 2026) [SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review]

[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]

This week (from July 10 to July 16), platinum and palladium prices drifted higher with their price center shifting upward, closing higher for the week. On July 10, building on the lingering sentiment from the previous week's June nonfarm payrolls surprise and cooling rate hike expectations, along with the absence of new US-Iran airstrikes that day and a marginal easing of geopolitical risk aversion, the US dollar index weakened slightly, and platinum and palladium opened higher and rose during the day. Subsequently, the market gradually digested the positive nonfarm data, and Fed officials made hawkish comments, saying they would still consider tightening if inflation data came in hot. Meanwhile, starting July 11, the US military resumed multiple rounds of strikes on Iranian military targets, and renewed geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, causing the dollar index to stop falling and rebound. Platinum and palladium futures pulled back slightly, giving up some gains. On the evening of July 14, the US June CPI data came in sharply lower than expected, with the YoY increase falling to 3.5% and core CPI YoY falling to 2.6%, sending clear signs of cooling inflation. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in July largely faded, and expectations for rate hikes this year were also revised down. Platinum and palladium surged alongside the precious metals complex. Although the US military on the same day announced the resumption of a naval blockade of Iranian ports, improved macro interest rate expectations became the dominant driver. On July 15, the futures extended their rebound, and on July 16, they consolidated at highs. Overall, the market moved in three phases: “geopolitical easing-driven rally – geopolitical flip-flop and hawkish comments pullback – post-CPI renewed rebound.” The price center for the week was higher than the previous week. The most-traded GFEX platinum contract hit a high of 413.9 yuan/g, a low of 391.7 yuan/g, and closed at 409.45 yuan/g on July 16; the most-traded palladium contract reached a high of 313.3 yuan/g, a low of 294.25 yuan/g, and closed at 309.6 yuan/g on July 16.

In the spot market, mainstream spot premiums/discounts for platinum and palladium hovered near parity against GFEX futures, with palladium spot premiums slightly higher than those for platinum. Overall trading activity was more active than the previous week, mainly because arbitrage opportunities from GFEX intermonth spreads prompted traders to actively take warehouse warrants. Downstream demand remained subdued, limiting the ability to absorb. Spot transactions and factory warehouse warrants for platinum and palladium were mostly done at discounts of 1 yuan/g to parity to the most-traded GFEX contracts, while warehouse warrants were mainly traded at slight premiums. Overall, spot premiums and discounts were relatively stable and did not fluctuate significantly with the futures market.

Looking ahead, the larger-than-expected decline in US inflation has temporarily eased macro headwinds, strengthening the momentum for a valuation recovery in platinum and palladium. However, uncertainty over the Fed's policy path remains, and the ongoing US-Iran conflict and risks to transit through the Strait of Hormuz are stirring energy inflation expectations, suggesting prices may continue to consolidate in the near term. Expanding demand in emerging platinum applications and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are boosting the upside elasticity of platinum and palladium prices, but as expectations for rate hikes this year have not reversed, combined with hawkish comments from Fed Governor Warsh that he is "not satisfied with any inflation indicator" and the unresolved US-Iran situation, upside room is expected to remain limited.

[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Comments]

COMEX platinum and palladium inventories showed divergent destocking trends, with platinum inventories falling notably, mainly because the conclusion of the US critical minerals tariff review ended industrial precautionary stockpiling. Palladium inventory changes were relatively small, and US warehouses still hold a large buffer stock, with current inventories remaining near one-year highs. On the imports front, platinum imports edged up in May, with the overall pace similar to the same period last year. Palladium imports pulled back slightly, but the overall pace remained significantly higher than from 2023 to 2025.

[Platinum Group Compounds]

This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride moved in similar patterns, both seeing "a slight pullback early in the week, followed by a sustained rebound from mid-week," and both hit their weekly highs on Thursday.

Chloroplatinic acid traded in a range of 164.5-168.5 yuan/g this week, with a weekly average price of 166.25 yuan/g. Opening at 165.5 yuan/g at the start of the week, it fell to a weekly low of 164.5 yuan/g on Tuesday before rebounding over the next two sessions and closed at 168.5 yuan/g on Thursday, up 3 yuan/g for the week, a weekly gain of 1.8%.

Palladium chloride traded at 189-197 yuan/g this week, with a weekly average of 192.5 yuan/g. Moving in sync with chloroplatinic acid, it opened at 190 yuan/g on Monday, hit a low of 189 yuan/g on Tuesday, then rebounded 2.6% on Wednesday and rose further to 197 yuan/g on Thursday, up 7 yuan/g for the week, a weekly gain of 3.7%.

Unlike the weak price trends of platinum and palladium compounds, rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium compounds saw larger price increases this week. Industrial users were reluctant to purchase at high prices, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, which in turn accelerated the shipment pace of platinum and palladium compounds.