[SMM Analysis] Precursor coefficient stayed stable overall, with sulphate prices dragging down precursor prices.

[SMM Lithium Battery] Soochow Securities research report noted that Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) delivered results in line with our expectations, with the rise in lithium prices contributing to earnings flexibility.

SMM, July 16 – Hunan Yuneng, a leading LFP producer, sent a price adjustment notice to its clients. Hunan Yuneng stated that since March 2026, affected by multiple factors including global geopolitical fluctuations and supply chain circulation disruptions, core raw material prices for LFP such as sulphur, phosphoric acid, and ferrous sulphate have continued to rise. Iron phosphate prices have surged from about 10,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year to 15,000 yuan/mt, an increase of over 50%. Moreover, iron phosphate now accounts for over 70% of the LFP processing fees. Rising costs have continuously squeezed profit margins in the production and manufacturing sector, creating significant pressure on the company’s operations, production, and capital turnover. Meanwhile, demand from downstream NEV and energy storage markets has been growing steadily and continuously, while the supply of high-quality, effective industry capacity remains persistently tight. Since July, the industry operating rate has reached as high as 90%, with high-end capacity being particularly tight. After its maintenance, Hunan Yuneng has been running at full capacity this year, and its newly added capacity this year can no longer meet the order growth demands of all clients. The company has decided that starting August 1, 2026, the processing fees for all LFP products will be uniformly raised by 2,000 yuan/mt. Data shows that the monthly average price of LFP in June 2026 was 61,113.33 yuan/mt, up 19.34% from the 51,209.52 yuan/mt average at the beginning of this year, and compared to the 33,802.08 yuan/mt average in the same period last year, up over 80% YoY. From the demand side, lithium battery shipments maintain a high-growth trajectory, underpinning the high operating rates of LFP enterprises. Some institutions forecast that overall lithium battery shipments will maintain around 45% growth in 2026, and industry volume is expected to reach 3 TWh in 2027, with the growth pace ahead of earlier projections. Industry growth is jointly supported by the power battery and ESS battery segments. Among these, the energy storage sector shows more prominent growth elasticity： ESS battery shipments are expected to increase by over 60% YoY in 2026, with annual shipments approaching 1 TWh, and its share of total lithium battery shipments exceeding 38%. This share is projected to rise further above 40% in 2027 and approach 50% in 2028.

[SMM Lithium Battery] Hunan Yuneng stated that since March 2026, affected by multiple factors including global geopolitical fluctuations and supply chain circulation disruptions, core raw material prices for LFP such as sulphur, phosphoric acid, and ferrous sulphate have continued to rise. Iron phosphate prices have surged from about 10,000 yuan/mt at the start of the year to 15,000 yuan/mt, an increase of over 50%.