SMM Jul 16:
Metal market:
As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally declined. SHFE copper slipped 0.22%, SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead rose 0.1%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin dropped 1.34%. SHFE nickel surged 2.94%.
Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.26%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.36%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 0.48%.
Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar and hot-rolled coil edged up. Stainless steel rose 1.13%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.56%.
Overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.31%, LME aluminum added 0.44%, LME lead advanced 0.68%. LME zinc rose 0.55%, LME tin climbed 0.46%. LME nickel jumped 2.47%.
Precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver dipped 0.08%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold dropped 0.82%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 3.22%.
Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.95%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.29%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 0.79% to 2,573.5 points.
As of 11:43 on July 16, midday futures market snapshot:
Spot and Fundamentals
Copper: Spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,180 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,080 yuan/mt, down 1,015 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals...
Macro Front
On the domestic front:
[China's power and ESS battery sales up 49.1% YoY in June] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released June 2026 power battery data, showing that in June, China's power and ESS battery sales were 196.0 GWh, up 7.6% MoM and up 49.1% YoY. Power battery sales were 133.4 GWh, accounting for 68.1% of total sales, up 5.0% MoM and up 41.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 62.6 GWh, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, up 13.4% MoM and up 67.5% YoY. January-June, China's cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 979.4 GWh, up 48.6% YoY. Power battery sales totaled 661.3 GWh, accounting for 67.5% of total sales, up 36.2% YoY; ESS battery sales totaled 318.1 GWh, accounting for 32.5% of total sales, up 83.4% YoY. (Jin10 Data App)
[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 616 Billion Yuan Today]The PBOC conducted 626 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo maturing today, the day's net injection stood at 616 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App)
US dollar side:
As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 100.5. During his appearance before a Senate hearing, Fed Chairman Warsh frequently expressed dissatisfaction with inflation, stating: "Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect underlying inflation conditions. The labour market looks quite good, but the inflation side is less optimistic. I am not satisfied with any inflation metric. We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see if adjustments are needed to address inflation."
The Fed's Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity expanded at a slight to mild pace in 11 of the 12 Fed districts, with the overall pace roughly on par with the prior period. The report noted that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers cutting back on discretionary spending and shifting to cheaper goods. Tourism rebounded, with World Cup-related traffic providing a boost for some regions. Manufacturing maintained mild growth, with orders rising in data centers, machinery, and national defense. Construction and real estate activity improved modestly, with data center construction a highlight. Drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer loan volumes rose modestly. However, agriculture was affected by lower commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most surveyed contacts expect the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, though significant uncertainty remains over the fuel cost outlook.
Fed Governor Cooke stated on Wednesday that it is prudent to wait for inflation to slow for some time, but she is prepared to act if inflation does not slow soon. Cooke noted: "I believe we should give more time from now on to observe how inflation develops. However, looking ahead, I still see risks as primarily concentrated on the upside for inflation, driven by the investment boom in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and price pressures from the Iran war.""If we do not see signs of slowing inflation soon, I am prepared to act. I am fully committed to achieving our inflation target—that commitment is unwavering." Cook contrasted the current situation with a year ago, when inflation was well above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market appeared stable but ran the risk of both labor market and inflation slowdowns. "I note that the balance of risks has shifted markedly compared to about a year ago, and now inflation risks outweigh employment risks," she said.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the odds of rates staying on hold stand at 51.2%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 44% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 4.7%. (Jin10 Data App)
Other Currencies:
On July 16, the Bank of Korea announced it would raise the 7-day repo rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, with all seven monetary policy board members voting unanimously for the 25-basis-point hike. This is the first rate hike by the Bank of Korea since January 2023 and marks the start of a new tightening cycle. The move was fully within market expectations. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all but one of the 37 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a July hike. A Korea Financial Investment Association poll of 100 fixed-income experts showed 66% forecast a rate increase this month. The rise from 2.50% to 2.75% appeared modest, but the signaling effect far outweighs the number itself. The Bank of Korea had cut rates four times since October 2024, reducing them by a cumulative 100 basis points, then held the benchmark rate steady for eight consecutive meetings. This rate hike may signal the formal end of the easing cycle. (Wall Street CN)
Data:
Data due today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US monthly retail sales for June, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July, the NAHB housing market index for July, US business inventories for May, the US pending home sales index for June, UK three-month GDP growth for May, UK manufacturing output for May, the UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and UK industrial production for May.
Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference of July. Fed Governor Cook Lisa will speak on the economic outlook. US Vice President Vance will deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions. US President Trump will give a speech. 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. TSMC will hold its 2026 Q2 earnings conference.
Crude Oil:
As of 11:43, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.23% and Brent down 0.52%. Concerns over geopolitical conflicts persisted, keeping oil prices moving sideways.
US President Trump said oil prices would fluctuate for some time. For the week ended July 10, US EIA crude oil inventories dropped 1.692 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 2.594 million barrel decline and a prior build of 2.998 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories fell 1.533 million barrels, versus expectations for a 760,000 barrel decline and a prior drop of 1.904 million barrels. (Jin10 Data)
A research report from Tianfeng Securities noted that the international crude oil market went through a "roller coaster" ride dominated by geopolitical risks in H1, with international oil prices surging to near $120/barrel before pulling back quickly. Recently, although tensions flared up again in the Strait of Hormuz, overall risks remain manageable. The core pricing logic for the crude market is shifting from "extreme geopolitical risks" to a three-way game among "geopolitical tail risk, political intervention, and fundamental equilibrium." In H2, oil prices are likely to see wild swings with resistance on the upside and support on the downside, with a general trend of "strength first, then weakness." The Brent price center is expected to trade within the $70/bbl–$75/bbl range. (Jin10 Data App)
Spot Market Overview:
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
![Tight supply continues to dominate the market, Yangshan copper premiums continue to rise [SMM Yangshan Copper Spot]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JnFuh20251217171711.jpg)
![Urgency of Tightening Outside China Declines, SHFE Tin Fundamentals Provide Support While Maintaining Wild Swings [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/IyXhW20251217171751.jpg)
![After the contract rollover, downstream inquiries were sluggish, and holding prices firm pushed up North China spot copper premiums [SMM North China Spot Copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/CaDcj20251217171711.jpg)
