Typhoon Bavi Causes Minor Disruption to Domestic NPI and Steel Mills, Delays Imported Nickel Shipments

On July 16, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price remained stable.

[7.16 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June CPI rose 3.5% YoY, compared to the expected 3.8% increase and the previous 4.2% rise. US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM, versus the expected 0.1% decline and the previous 0.5% increase. After the release of US June CPI data, traders pushed back their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes to October. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract drifted lower in morning trading, closing down 0.43% at 128,870 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session. US inflation cooled significantly in June, with the unadjusted core CPI rising 2.6% YoY, below the expected 2.8% and the previous 2.9%. The cooling inflation further pushed back market expectations for US Fed rate hikes, and the US dollar extended its decline. In the short term, nickel prices may see a rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price range between 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

A written parliamentary question posed to the European Commission asked: "What monetisable compensation does the Commission envisage for downstream producers whose embedded costs originate upstream, and who do not qualify for the decarbonisation fund?" Commissioner Hoekstra's July 14 response offered no direct answer, pointing instead to the Temporary Decarbonisation Fund — designed primarily for large EU ETS installations — with a vague note that it "may also decrease associated downstream costs," with no obligation, guarantee, or figure attached. Critics note that large integrated steelmakers benefit from multiple layers of protection including tariffs, quotas, free ETS allowances, and decarbonisation funding, while import-dependent SMEs and downstream processors face rising procurement costs, CBAM obligations, quota cuts exceeding 45%, and heavy administrative burdens — with no cumulative impact assessment ever published by the Commission. Meanwhile, steel import quota data remains poorly updated, with the Commission confirming it will update TRQs only once daily with no real-time data, and declining to recognize the "Total awaiting allocation" figure as legally binding.