[SMM Analysis] Billet Export Growth Remains Strong, UAE Drop Hits New Low
- By Product
Billet continued its rapid growth, while hot-rolled coil remained the product with the steepest decline. In January-May 2026, China's cumulative billet exports reached 6.76 million mt (vs. 4.72 million mt a year ago), surging by 2.04 million mt, maintaining robust growth momentum. This was mainly driven by phased supply-demand mismatches in overseas supply chains and the subsequent effects of aggressive global buyer inquiries to China, especially the marginal support from procurement sentiment in markets such as Southeast Asia. In contrast, hot-rolled coil exports plummeted to 7.21 million mt from 10.51 million mt in the same period last year, a decrease of 3.3 million mt, closely linked to the implementation of overseas anti-dumping policies on hot-rolled coil and a high base effect.
Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs
- By Country
Singapore replaced Djibouti at the top of the growth list. Its product mix chart clearly shows that bars (61%) and wire rod (12%) were the absolute mainstays, together accounting for 73% of the total. As a global shipping and trade settlement hub, Singapore's significant growth was mainly due to intra-ASEAN and cross-border Chinese-invested construction projects undergoing concentrated procurement and trade settlement there, providing strong support for China's exports of bar, wire rod, and related infrastructure finished products. Conversely, on the top decliner list were the UAE (down 1.18 million mt), Brazil (down 850,000 mt), Vietnam (down 780,000 mt), and Saudi Arabia (down 570,000 mt), largely a direct result of geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and regional trade barrier policies.
Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs
- Outlook
Based on SMM's latest steel export order data, with the ongoing US-Iran conflict causing uncertainty, Middle Eastern buyers are expected to remain relatively cautious in procurement. As the price advantage of Chinese exports over other markets continues to narrow, overall export order volumes are unlikely to see significant improvement. However, considering the noticeable decline in sheet product transactions last week, a slight recovery is possible in the short term.
Source: SMM
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