Cell Prices Continue to Consolidate at Lows, Glass Production Cuts Pace Accelerates [SMM Silicon PV Morning Brief]

SMM, July 16:

Solar Cell

Prices

The price range for Topcon 183 was raised to 0.265-0.27 Yuan/W, while the mainstream average price for 210R held steady at 0.265 Yuan/W, and the transaction range for 210N remained at 0.27-0.275 Yuan/W. Apart from the price increase for 183 due to reduced inventory, after 210R and 210N prices dropped to their current ranges, producers showed markedly less willingness to proactively cut offers further, though the risk of lower prices cannot be ruled out if inventory continues to build materially. As industry inventory buildup pressure has yet to ease substantially, downstream module procurement pace remained steady, with insufficient orders to drive a price recovery. The market entered a weak-balance, wait-and-see state, with prices likely to consolidate at lows in the short term.

Production

The industry production schedule for July was expected to remain above the June level, as the production cut plans previously announced by some producers had not yet been implemented. The actual output scale going forward still depends on the execution progress of these cuts.

Inventory

Total industry inventory rose further this week compared to last week, with the buildup trend intensifying. Producers continued to face significant destocking pressure.

Module

Prices

China's module prices diverged this week. Specialized and small module enterprises continued their strategy of competing for orders, keeping prices relatively low. However, for top integrated producers, as semi-annual reports were gradually disclosed and under the impact of losses, prices recently held basically stable, and some offers in the distributed market were even raised. Price divergence among enterprises was relatively severe. Currently, high-efficiency distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N modules were quoted at 0.7195 Yuan/W, 0.726 Yuan/W, and 0.732 Yuan/W, respectively, while high-efficiency centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N modules were quoted at 0.711 Yuan/W and 0.726 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

China's module producers maintained stable operations recently, with enterprises largely producing based on demand. As the delivery period approached, overall industry operating rates were still expected to rise from June levels.

Inventory

China's module inventory edged down this week. Driven by competitive shipments of low-efficiency modules, enterprises' old inventory began to decline.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/PV-grade POE:

The mainstream spot transaction range for PV-grade EVA resin this week was 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt, with the market price center drifting higher overall. Traders’ quotes have been edging up recently, but actual market transaction prices have yet to reach the high end of the quoted range. Supply side, some production units have recently switched to PV-grade material, easing the tightness in supply somewhat. By comparison, market sentiment during this round of price rises is noticeably weaker than the March rally. Whether the increase in EVA prices will prove sustainable still depends on oil price trends and supply-demand conditions.

PV Film:

Current prices are 5.04-5.1 yuan/m² for 420g transparent EVA film and 5.13-5.19 yuan/m² for 380g EPE film. Upstream EVA resin prices edged up, pushing production costs for film higher in tandem. Industry-leading module producers price based on monthly long-term agreements, with purchase prices remaining stable within the month. Transaction prices for one-order-one-deal film are expected to edge up next week in line with raw material trends.

Production

PV-grade EVA production edged up this week as some units switched to PV-grade material. Film producers’ July production schedule plans show a roughly 6%-7% MoM increase from June; downstream demand has undergone a slight recovery, but growth remains limited.

Inventories

PV-grade EVA inventories currently remain within a reasonable range, with no destocking pressure. Film producers continue purchasing on a just-in-time basis, and no concentrated restocking signals have been released.

PV Glass:

Price

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: Quoted prices for 3.2mm single‑layer coated PV glass are 15-16 yuan/m², with glass prices holding steady.

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: Quoted prices for 3.2mm double‑layer coated PV glass are 16-17 yuan/m², with glass prices holding steady.

2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: Quoted prices for 2.0mm single‑layer coated PV glass are 8.5-9.5 yuan/m². This week, some enterprises plan to raise prices when settling after July, but the module side is still maintaining a tough stance, and actual transaction prices remain to be determined through negotiation.

2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: Quoted prices for 2.0mm double‑layer coated PV glass are 9.5-10.5 yuan/m², with glass prices holding steady.

Production

Last week, China’s two major industry leaders each took one furnace into cold repair, accelerating the pace of industry-wide production cuts versus the same period in June.

Inventories

Days of inventories have maintained a downward trend recently. Purchases by downstream module producers rose from June levels, though the increase was relatively limited due to downstream losses.